用模糊逻辑建模墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯女性谋杀风险，提升预测精度。
Predicting Femicide in Veracruz: A Fuzzy Logic Approach with the Expanded MFM-FEM-VER-CP-2024 Model
- 通过隶属度函数量化控制、贬低等暴力风险因素。
- 改进后模型在真实数据上显著提升预测准确率。
- 适合政策制定者和性别暴力干预研究者参考。
本文聚焦墨西哥韦拉克鲁斯州的女性谋杀问题，提出MFM_FEM_VER_CP_2024模型，一种基于模糊逻辑的数学框架，用于预测女性谋杀风险。该模型通过隶属度函数形式化性暴力中的复杂不确定性，包括胁迫控制、去人性化及暴力循环等关键因素。研究通过引入新规则并优化现有隶属函数，提升了模型对实际案例的预测能力。结果表明，改进后的模型在评估个人关系与具体暴力行为时具有更高的准确性，为地区性性别暴力干预提供了可量化的决策支持工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The article focuses on the urgent issue of femicide in Veracruz, Mexico, and the development of the MFM_FEM_VER_CP_2024 model, a mathematical framework designed to predict femicide risk using fuzzy logic. This model addresses the complexity and uncertainty inherent in gender based violence by formalizing risk factors such as coercive control, dehumanization, and the cycle of violence. These factors are mathematically modeled through membership functions that assess the degree of risk associated with various conditions, including personal relationships and specific acts of violence. The study enhances the original model by incorporating new rules and refining existing membership functions, which significantly improve the model predictive accuracy.
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