用几何超图建模新闻与股市的复杂关系,提升预测准确性和可解释性。
Breaking Down Financial News Impact: A Novel AI Approach with Geometric Hypergraphs
- 构建几何超图捕捉多主体、多事件的高阶关联
- 结合注意力机制与SHAP值,实现精准预测与透明推理
- 适合量化投资与金融风控领域研究者参考
在快速变化且波动剧烈的金融市场中,基于财经新闻准确预测股价走势对投资者和分析师至关重要。传统模型难以捕捉新闻事件与市场反应之间的复杂动态关系,限制了其提供有效洞察的能力。本文提出一种基于可解释人工智能的新方法——几何超图注意力网络(GHAN),通过几何超图结构建模金融实体与新闻事件间的高阶交互关系,能够有效表示单条新闻对多个股票或行业同时产生的影响。该结构突破传统图模型的二元连接限制,支持多节点关联。模型引入注意力机制,聚焦关键信息,结合BERT文本嵌入捕捉新闻语义,提升预测精度。同时,通过集成注意力权重与SHAP值,增强模型可解释性,揭示影响预测的关键因素。在大规模财经新闻数据集上的实证结果表明,该方法显著优于传统的基于情感分析和时间序列的模型,有效应对高阶关系建模、可解释性需求及市场动态性等核心挑战。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In the fast-paced and volatile financial markets, accurately predicting stock movements based on financial news is critical for investors and analysts. Traditional models often struggle to capture the intricate and dynamic relationships between news events and market reactions, limiting their ability to provide actionable insights. This paper introduces a novel approach leveraging Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through the development of a Geometric Hypergraph Attention Network (GHAN) to analyze the impact of financial news on market behaviours. Geometric hypergraphs extend traditional graph structures by allowing edges to connect multiple nodes, effectively modelling high-order relationships and interactions among financial entities and news events. This unique capability enables the capture of complex dependencies, such as the simultaneous impact of a single news event on multiple stocks or sectors, which traditional models frequently overlook. By incorporating attention mechanisms within hypergraphs, GHAN enhances the model's ability to focus on the most relevant information, ensuring more accurate predictions and better interpretability. Additionally, we employ BERT-based embeddings to capture the semantic richness of financial news texts, providing a nuanced understanding of the content. Using a comprehensive financial news dataset, our GHAN model addresses key challenges in financial news impact analysis, including the complexity of high-order interactions, the necessity for model interpretability, and the dynamic nature of financial markets. Integrating attention mechanisms and SHAP values within GHAN ensures transparency, highlighting the most influential factors driving market predictions. Empirical validation demonstrates the superior effectiveness of our approach over traditional sentiment analysis and time-series models.
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