提高促销强度能增加用户存款，但降低满意度和转化率。
Assessing the Impact of Upselling in Online Fantasy Sports
- 通过强度参数建模并实验评估促销影响。
- 促销越强，用户留存下降，存款上升但转化率降低。
- 用因果模型个性化促销，寻找最优平衡点。
本研究探讨了促销对用户参与度的影响。我们基于梦幻体育平台Dream11的用户存款行为进行建模，并开发实验框架，通过强度参数评估促销效果。真实环境实验显示，促销强度越高，用户召回率越低。研究发现，提升促销强度虽改善了用户存款表现，却同时降低了用户满意度和转化率。通过稳健的反事实分析及因果元学习模型，我们实现了用户级促销强度的个性化调控，以达到收益与体验的最优权衡。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study explores the impact of upselling on user engagement. We model users' deposit behaviour on the fantasy sports platform Dream11. Subsequently, we develop an experimental framework to evaluate the effect of upselling using an intensity parameter. Our live experiments on user deposit behaviour reveal decreased user recall with heightened upselling intensity. Our findings indicate that increased upselling intensity improves user deposit metrics and concurrently diminishes user satisfaction and conversion rates. We conduct robust counterfactual analysis and train causal meta-learners to personalise users' upselling intensity levels to reach an optimal trade-off point.
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