用随机物理知识增强深度学习,让交通状态估计更真实可靠。
Knowledge-data fusion oriented traffic state estimation: A stochastic physics-informed deep learning approach
- 引入随机元胞自动机模型作为物理先验,替代传统确定性模型。
- 在稀疏数据下仍能精准估计交通状态,且还原实际观测的波动特性。
- 适合交通流建模、智能交通系统研发人员参考。
基于物理信息的深度学习(PIDL)模型在交通状态估计(TSE)中取得显著进展。然而,当前主流架构所依赖的先验知识基于确定性物理模型,难以捕捉普遍存在的交通流动态分散现象,导致交通控制结果不可靠。本文首次提出随机物理信息深度学习(SPIDL)用于交通状态估计。其核心思想是:随机基本图可为任意密度提供对应速度的概率分布范围。我们选取分位数基本图与分布型基本图作为随机物理知识,设计相应的无物理约束神经网络以实现有效融合,构建出两种具体模型:α-SPIDL 和 ℬ-SPIDL。SPIDL 的主要贡献在于缓解确定性模型中一对一速度-密度关系带来的“过度集中引导”问题,使网络能吸收更可靠的基于知识的约束。实测数据实验表明,所提 SPIDL 模型在稀疏数据场景下仍能实现高精度交通状态估计。更重要的是,模型如预期般复现了现场观测中的分散效应,验证了将随机物理模型知识与深度学习框架融合的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Physics-informed deep learning (PIDL)-based models have recently garnered remarkable success in traffic state estimation (TSE). However, the prior knowledge used to guide regularization training in current mainstream architectures is based on deterministic physical models. The drawback is that a solely deterministic model fails to capture the universally observed traffic flow dynamic scattering effect, thereby yielding unreliable outcomes for traffic control. This study, for the first time, proposes stochastic physics-informed deep learning (SPIDL) for traffic state estimation. The idea behind such SPIDL is simple and is based on the fact that a stochastic fundamental diagram provides the entire range of possible speeds for any given density with associated probabilities. Specifically, we select percentile-based fundamental diagram and distribution-based fundamental diagram as stochastic physics knowledge, and design corresponding physics-uninformed neural networks for effective fusion, thereby realizing two specific SPIDL models, namely \text{$α$}-SPIDL and \text{$\cal B$}-SPIDL. The main contribution of SPIDL lies in addressing the "overly centralized guidance" caused by the one-to-one speed-density relationship in deterministic models during neural network training, enabling the network to digest more reliable knowledge-based constraints.Experiments on the real-world dataset indicate that proposed SPIDL models achieve accurate traffic state estimation in sparse data scenarios. More importantly, as expected, SPIDL models reproduce well the scattering effect of field observations, demonstrating the effectiveness of fusing stochastic physics model knowledge with deep learning frameworks.
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