用分层社区网络模拟社交媒体如何引发股市泡沫
Simulation of Social Media-Driven Bubble Formation in Financial Markets using an Agent-Based Model with Hierarchical Influence Network
- 构建分层社区网络，模拟社交影响下投资者行为演化
- 模型再现真实市场中的典型特征与泡沫现象
- 适合研究金融传播、社交媒体影响的学者与从业者
我们提出，树状分层结构是建模金融市场涌现行为的一种简洁而有效的方式，尤其适用于社交媒体影响力与投资行为高度交织的市场。为此，我们引入一种基于代理的金融市场模型，其中交易代理嵌入于由社区构成的分层网络中，社区对交易者的策略和观点产生影响。对模型的实证分析表明，其行为符合真实金融市场中的若干典型特征；该模型能够真实模拟社交媒体驱动现象（如回音室效应和拉高出货骗局）对金融市场的影响。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We propose that a tree-like hierarchical structure represents a simple and effective way to model the emergent behaviour of financial markets, especially markets where there exists a pronounced intersection between social media influences and investor behaviour. To explore this hypothesis, we introduce an agent-based model of financial markets, where trading agents are embedded in a hierarchical network of communities, and communities influence the strategies and opinions of traders. Empirical analysis of the model shows that its behaviour conforms to several stylized facts observed in real financial markets; and the model is able to realistically simulate the effects that social media-driven phenomena, such as echo chambers and pump-and-dump schemes, have on financial markets.
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