用机器学习提升美式期权定价精度,显著优于传统方法。
Pricing American Options using Machine Learning Algorithms
- 结合蒙特卡洛与机器学习的最小二乘法,优化早期行权估值。
- GRU模型在误差指标上全面超越LSTM,训练更稳定高效。
- 适合量化金融、算法交易研究者参考,融合经典理论与现代计算。
本研究探讨了机器学习算法在美式期权定价中的应用,尤其结合蒙特卡洛模拟。传统模型如Black-Scholes-Merton框架难以处理美式期权的提前行权特性与非线性收益结构。通过将蒙特卡洛方法与最小二乘法结合,采用神经网络和决策树等模型评估其性能。实验基于80-20划分的训练验证集,构建了使用TensorFlow Keras API的LSTM与GRU模型,各含四层200个神经元的隐藏层及输出层,以Adam优化器和均方误差损失函数进行优化。结果表明,集成机器学习的蒙特卡洛方法可显著提升定价准确性和预测鲁棒性。其中GRU模型在所有评估指标(平均绝对误差、均方误差、均方根误差)上均优于LSTM,且训练更稳定高效。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study investigates the application of machine learning algorithms, particularly in the context of pricing American options using Monte Carlo simulations. Traditional models, such as the Black-Scholes-Merton framework, often fail to adequately address the complexities of American options, which include the ability for early exercise and non-linear payoff structures. By leveraging Monte Carlo methods in conjunction Least Square Method machine learning was used. This research aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of option pricing. The study evaluates several machine learning models, including neural networks and decision trees, highlighting their potential to outperform traditional approaches. The results from applying machine learning algorithm in LSM indicate that integrating machine learning with Monte Carlo simulations can enhance pricing accuracy and provide more robust predictions, offering significant insights into quantitative finance by merging classical financial theories with modern computational techniques. The dataset was split into features and the target variable representing bid prices, with an 80-20 train-validation split. LSTM and GRU models were constructed using TensorFlow's Keras API, each with four hidden layers of 200 neurons and an output layer for bid price prediction, optimized with the Adam optimizer and MSE loss function. The GRU model outperformed the LSTM model across all evaluated metrics, demonstrating lower mean absolute error, mean squared error, and root mean squared error, along with greater stability and efficiency in training.
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