将地铁出行对视为整体,提升流量预测精度
UMOD: A Novel and Effective Urban Metro Origin-Destination Flow Prediction Method
- 把出发站与到达站的出行对当作统一单元建模
- 在两个真实数据集上表现优于现有方法
- 适合城市交通规划与智能调度系统研究者
精准预测地铁起讫点(OD)客流对智能交通系统发展和城市交通管理至关重要。现有方法通常分别预测出发站客流量或到达站客流量,但乘客的出发与到达站点具有明确对应关系,使这些OD对本质上相互关联。因此,将OD对作为整体来建模更能反映实际出行规律,并能分析不同出行对之间的潜在时空关联。为此,本文提出一种新颖有效的城市地铁OD流预测方法UMOD,包含三个核心模块:数据嵌入模块、时间关系模块和空间关系模块。数据嵌入模块将原始的OD对输入映射到隐空间表示,随后由时间和空间关系模块捕捉不同出行对间的跨对依赖及同一出行对内的时序依赖。在两个真实世界城市地铁OD流数据集上的实验表明,采用OD对视角对于准确预测至关重要,所提方法显著优于现有方法,展现出更优的预测性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of metro Origin-Destination (OD) flow is essential for the development of intelligent transportation systems and effective urban traffic management. Existing approaches typically either predict passenger outflow of departure stations or inflow of destination stations. However, we argue that travelers generally have clearly defined departure and arrival stations, making these OD pairs inherently interconnected. Consequently, considering OD pairs as a unified entity more accurately reflects actual metro travel patterns and allows for analyzing potential spatio-temporal correlations between different OD pairs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel and effective urban metro OD flow prediction method (UMOD), comprising three core modules: a data embedding module, a temporal relation module, and a spatial relation module. The data embedding module projects raw OD pair inputs into hidden space representations, which are subsequently processed by the temporal and spatial relation modules to capture both inter-pair and intra-pair spatio-temporal dependencies. Experimental results on two real-world urban metro OD flow datasets demonstrate that adopting the OD pairs perspective is critical for accurate metro OD flow prediction. Our method outperforms existing approaches, delivering superior predictive performance.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。