arXiv:2409.05482astro-ph.SRastro-ph.EP2024-09

用机器学习提升恒星自转周期预测精度,助力系外行星研究

Advancing Machine Learning for Stellar Activity and Exoplanet Period Rotation

  • 采用集成学习模型融合多种算法,提升周期预测鲁棒性
  • 投票集成模型RMSE比决策树低50%,优于KNN和梯度提升
  • 结果对系外行星与恒星物理研究有重要应用价值

本研究将机器学习模型应用于美国宇航局开普勒任务获取的校正后光变曲线数据,以估计恒星自转周期。传统方法因光变曲线中的噪声和变化性常难以准确估算周期。工作流程包括使用LS-Periodogram和Transit Least Squares技术获得初始周期估计,并将数据划分为训练、验证和测试集。实验采用了决策树、随机森林、K近邻和梯度提升等算法,并引入投票集成方法以提高预测准确性和鲁棒性。分析覆盖多个开普勒编号(Kepler IDs),提供了轨道周期和行星半径的详细指标。性能评估显示,投票集成模型表现最佳,其均方根误差(RMSE)比决策树模型低约50%,比K近邻模型高17%;随机森林模型表现接近投票集成,表明高准确性。相比之下,梯度提升模型的RMSE较差。预测周期与光度参考周期高度吻合,说明机器学习模型具备高预测精度。结果表明,尤其是集成方法,能有效解决恒星自转周期精确估计问题,对推动系外行星与恒星天体物理学研究具有重要意义。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study applied machine learning models to estimate stellar rotation periods from corrected light curve data obtained by the NASA Kepler mission. Traditional methods often struggle to estimate rotation periods accurately due to noise and variability in the light curve data. The workflow involved using initial period estimates from the LS-Periodogram and Transit Least Squares techniques, followed by splitting the data into training, validation, and testing sets. We employed several machine learning algorithms, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Gradient Boosting, and also utilized a Voting Ensemble approach to improve prediction accuracy and robustness. The analysis included data from multiple Kepler IDs, providing detailed metrics on orbital periods and planet radii. Performance evaluation showed that the Voting Ensemble model yielded the most accurate results, with an RMSE approximately 50\% lower than the Decision Tree model and 17\% better than the K-Nearest Neighbors model. The Random Forest model performed comparably to the Voting Ensemble, indicating high accuracy. In contrast, the Gradient Boosting model exhibited a worse RMSE compared to the other approaches. Comparisons of the predicted rotation periods to the photometric reference periods showed close alignment, suggesting the machine learning models achieved high prediction accuracy. The results indicate that machine learning, particularly ensemble methods, can effectively solve the problem of accurately estimating stellar rotation periods, with significant implications for advancing the study of exoplanets and stellar astrophysics.

机器学习恒星周期系外行星开普勒数据

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