arXiv:2409.05884cs.CYcs.LG2024-09被引 2

用上下文增强的Transformer模型,融合未来计划信息提升电力负荷预测精度。

Integrating the Expected Future in Load Forecasts with Contextually Enhanced Transformer Models

  • 将预测建模为序列到序列任务,融合历史数据与未来计划信息
  • 铁路用电预测误差降低26.6%,办公建筑预测误差降低56.3%
  • 适合需结合调度、排班等前瞻信息的能源预测场景

精准可靠的能源预测对电网运营商至关重要,可有效减少极端预测误差带来的运营挑战和日内交易成本。融入规划信息(如预期用户行为、计划事件或时刻表)能显著提升预测准确性并降低大误差发生率。现有方法缺乏灵活整合动态前瞻上下文与历史数据的能力。本文将预测视为联合预测-回归任务,构建上下文增强型Transformer模型,以有效利用所有上下文信息。在国家级铁路能耗预测主案例中,引入时刻表等上下文信息使平均绝对误差降低26.6%;辅助案例针对建筑能耗,利用计划办公人员密度数据,平均绝对误差下降56.3%。相比其他先进方法,本模型持续表现更优,凸显上下文感知深度学习在能源预测中的价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate and reliable energy forecasting is essential for power grid operators who strive to minimize extreme forecasting errors that pose significant operational challenges and incur high intra-day trading costs. Incorporating planning information -- such as anticipated user behavior, scheduled events or timetables -- provides substantial contextual information to enhance forecast accuracy and reduce the occurrence of large forecasting errors. Existing approaches, however, lack the flexibility to effectively integrate both dynamic, forward-looking contextual inputs and historical data. In this work, we conceptualize forecasting as a combined forecasting-regression task, formulated as a sequence-to-sequence prediction problem, and introduce contextually-enhanced transformer models designed to leverage all contextual information effectively. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through a primary case study on nationwide railway energy consumption forecasting, where integrating contextual information into transformer models, particularly timetable data, resulted in a significant average mean absolute error reduction of 26.6%. An auxiliary case study on building energy forecasting, leveraging planned office occupancy data, further illustrates the generalizability of our method, showing an average reduction of 56.3% in mean absolute error. Compared to other state-of-the-art methods, our approach consistently outperforms existing models, underscoring the value of context-aware deep learning techniques in energy forecasting applications.

负荷预测Transformer上下文增强能源管理

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