arXiv:2409.06271stat.MLcs.LG2024-09

重新定义敏感性分析,不依赖传统分解方法

A new paradigm for global sensitivity analysis

  • 提出无需Sobol分解的敏感性度量新范式
  • 可统一现有指标并生成新指标,支持任意输入分布
  • 适合需灵活建模输入依赖关系的研究者

众所周知,Sobol指数基于Sobol分解,本文挑战这一基础,提出不依赖Sobol分解的Sobol指数新定义。我们证明其为更一般概念——敏感性度量——的特例。敏感性度量是输入到输出系统的集函数,当且仅当输出几乎必然不依赖于某输入子集时取零值。全集上的敏感性度量表示输出不确定性。测量特定子集的敏感性等价于在该子集被随机固定后,输出条件不确定性的期望。通过考虑所有输入组合,敏感性度量隐含一个对称二水平因子实验,其因子效应可计算。该范式推广了多种已知敏感性指标,可构造新指标,并独立于度量选择定义交互效应,无需假设输入分布。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

It is well-known that Sobol indices, which count among the most popular sensitivity indices, are based on the Sobol decomposition. Here we challenge this construction by redefining Sobol indices without the Sobol decomposition. In fact, we show that Sobol indices are a particular instance of a more general concept which we call sensitivity measures. A sensitivity measure of a system taking inputs and returning outputs is a set function that is null at a subset of inputs if and only if, with probability one, the output actually does not depend on those inputs. A sensitivity measure evaluated at the whole set of inputs represents the uncertainty about the output. We show that measuring sensitivity to a particular subset is akin to measuring the expected output's uncertainty conditionally on the fact that the inputs belonging to that subset have been fixed to random values. By considering all of the possible combinations of inputs, sensitivity measures induce an implicit symmetric factorial experiment with two levels, the factorial effects of which can be calculated. This new paradigm generalizes many known sensitivity indices, can create new ones, and defines interaction effects independently of the choice of the sensitivity measure. No assumption about the distribution of the inputs is required.

敏感性分析统计建模不确定性量化

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