arXiv:2409.07188physics.ao-phcs.LG2024-09被引 23

FuXi-2.0实现每小时全球气象预报,精度超越欧洲中期天气预报中心模型。

FuXi-2.0: Advancing machine learning weather forecasting model for practical applications

  • 采用耦合大气海洋的深度学习架构,支持1小时分辨率预报。
  • 在风电、航运等场景中,对风速、气旋强度等关键变量预测更精准。
  • 适合能源、航空、海事等领域对高精度预报有刚需的用户。

机器学习(ML)模型在气象预报中日益重要,不仅降低计算成本,且常达到或超越传统数值天气预报(NWP)模型的精度。然而,现有ML模型通常存在时间分辨率粗(普遍为6小时)、气象变量种类有限等问题,制约其实际应用。为此,本文提出FuXi-2.0,一款可提供1小时全球气象预报并涵盖多种核心气象变量的先进机器学习模型,显著拓展其在风能、太阳能、航空及海运等领域的适用性。通过与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)高分辨率预报(HRES)在多个实际场景中的对比分析,结果表明:在风能预测等关键变量上,FuXi-2.0持续优于ECMWF HRES,验证了其作为高精度预报工具的有效性。此外,该模型集成大气与海洋分量,代表了大气-海洋耦合模型的重要进展;进一步对比显示,相比前代模型FuXi-1.0,FuXi-2.0在热带气旋强度预测上表现更优,说明耦合模型相较仅大气模型具有明显优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Machine learning (ML) models have become increasingly valuable in weather forecasting, providing forecasts that not only lower computational costs but often match or exceed the accuracy of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite their potential, ML models typically suffer from limitations such as coarse temporal resolution, typically 6 hours, and a limited set of meteorological variables, limiting their practical applicability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce FuXi-2.0, an advanced ML model that delivers 1-hourly global weather forecasts and includes a comprehensive set of essential meteorological variables, thereby expanding its utility across various sectors like wind and solar energy, aviation, and marine shipping. Our study conducts comparative analyses between ML-based 1-hourly forecasts and those from the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for various practical scenarios. The results demonstrate that FuXi-2.0 consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in forecasting key meteorological variables relevant to these sectors. In particular, FuXi-2.0 shows superior performance in wind power forecasting compared to ECMWF HRES, further validating its efficacy as a reliable tool for scenarios demanding precise weather forecasts. Additionally, FuXi-2.0 also integrates both atmospheric and oceanic components, representing a significant step forward in the development of coupled atmospheric-ocean models. Further comparative analyses reveal that FuXi-2.0 provides more accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity than its predecessor, FuXi-1.0, suggesting that there are benefits of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model over atmosphere-only models.

气象预报机器学习耦合模型风能预测

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