arXiv:2409.07486q-fin.CPcs.AI2024-09ICLR被引 32

用生成模型模拟金融市场订单,实现无风险训练与分析

MarS: a Financial Market Simulation Engine Powered by Generative Foundation Model

  • 构建订单级生成基础模型LMM,类比语言建模生成市场行为
  • MarS可生成高真实感、可控的市场交易数据,支持多种金融应用
  • 适合量化研究、策略训练和市场异常检测场景

生成模型旨在跨不同情境模拟各种行为的真实效果,从文本生成到视觉特效。尽管已投入大量努力构建现实世界模拟器,但将生成模型应用于虚拟世界(如金融市场)的研究仍不充分。在金融市场中,生成模型可模拟具有不同行为模式参与者的复杂市场影响,实现在不同市场条件下的交互与无风险策略训练。该模拟依赖于金融市场的精细化结构化数据,如订单信息,以构建最真实的仿真环境。我们提出大型市场模型(LMM),一种订单级别的生成基础模型,用于金融市场仿真,类似于数字世界的语言建模。我们的金融市场模拟引擎MarS,由LMM驱动,满足领域特定需求:真实、交互性强且可控制的订单生成。关键发现包括LMM在数据规模和模型复杂度上的良好可扩展性,以及MarS在可控生成和市场影响模拟方面的稳健性与实用性。我们展示了MarS作为预测工具、检测系统、分析平台和智能体训练环境的应用潜力,证明其在多种金融应用中的范式转变可能。代码已开源:https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

金融模拟生成模型订单生成市场仿真

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