将股价序列当作文本令牌,用大模型更准地预测股票走势。
StockTime: A Time Series Specialized Large Language Model Architecture for Stock Price Prediction
- 把股价序列当文本处理,融合时间序列与语言特征
- 在多个数据集上预测误差降低,内存和运行时间更少
- 适合需要高效高精度股价预测的量化研究者
股票价格预测在金融领域具有重要意义,长期受到关注。近年来,大语言模型(LLMs)为提升预测能力带来了新方法。尽管现有金融大语言模型(FinLLMs)在金融自然语言处理任务中相比小型预训练语言模型(PLMs)有显著进步,但在股价预测方面仍面临挑战:一是如何有效融合时间序列数据与自然语言模态;二是FinLLMs更侧重分析可解释性,忽视了时间序列数据的核心特征;三是金融市场信息冗余且虚假内容多,导致模型预测不准确。本文提出StockTime,一种专为股价时间序列设计的新型基于大模型的架构。不同于现有FinLLMs,StockTime将股价序列视为连续令牌,利用大模型天然的下一个词预测能力,直接从股价中提取股票相关性、统计趋势和时间戳等文本信息,并将其与时间序列数据统一嵌入到共享空间中。通过融合多模态信息,StockTime能有效预测任意回溯期的股价。实验表明,StockTime在多个基准数据集上优于近期主流大模型,不仅预测更准确,还降低了内存占用和运行时开销。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The stock price prediction task holds a significant role in the financial domain and has been studied for a long time. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have brought new ways to improve these predictions. While recent financial large language models (FinLLMs) have shown considerable progress in financial NLP tasks compared to smaller pre-trained language models (PLMs), challenges persist in stock price forecasting. Firstly, effectively integrating the modalities of time series data and natural language to fully leverage these capabilities remains complex. Secondly, FinLLMs focus more on analysis and interpretability, which can overlook the essential features of time series data. Moreover, due to the abundance of false and redundant information in financial markets, models often produce less accurate predictions when faced with such input data. In this paper, we introduce StockTime, a novel LLM-based architecture designed specifically for stock price data. Unlike recent FinLLMs, StockTime is specifically designed for stock price time series data. It leverages the natural ability of LLMs to predict the next token by treating stock prices as consecutive tokens, extracting textual information such as stock correlations, statistical trends and timestamps directly from these stock prices. StockTime then integrates both textual and time series data into the embedding space. By fusing this multimodal data, StockTime effectively predicts stock prices across arbitrary look-back periods. Our experiments demonstrate that StockTime outperforms recent LLMs, as it gives more accurate predictions while reducing memory usage and runtime costs.
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