arXiv:2409.08917cs.LGcs.AI2024-09被引 4

用潜在空间扩散模型实现高精度多变量时间序列插补,还能评估不确定性。

Latent Space Score-based Diffusion Model for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Imputation

  • 先在低维潜在空间重建缺失数据,再用条件扩散模型精修结果。
  • 在真实数据集上平均误差降低12.3%,优于现有方法。
  • 适合需要可信插补与不确定度分析的金融、医疗场景。

准确的插补对下游任务的可靠性至关重要。近年来,扩散模型在该领域受到广泛关注。然而,这些模型忽略了从观测数据中提取的低维潜在分布,限制了生成能力。此外,缺乏标签的原始缺失数据处理尤为困难。为此,本文提出潜在空间评分扩散模型(LSSDM),用于概率性多变量时间序列插补。观测值被投影到低维潜在空间,通过无监督学习重构缺失数据的粗略值,无需已知真实值。随后,将重构值输入条件扩散模型,获得高保真度的精确插补结果。该方法不仅能识别潜在分布,还可无缝融合扩散模型,实现高质量插补并评估数据集的不确定性。实验表明,LSSDM在多个真实数据集上表现更优,且提供了更好的插补机制解释与不确定性分析。代码开源:https://github.com/gorgen2020/LSSDM_imputation。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate imputation is essential for the reliability and success of downstream tasks. Recently, diffusion models have attracted great attention in this field. However, these models neglect the latent distribution in a lower-dimensional space derived from the observed data, which limits the generative capacity of the diffusion model. Additionally, dealing with the original missing data without labels becomes particularly problematic. To address these issues, we propose the Latent Space Score-Based Diffusion Model (LSSDM) for probabilistic multivariate time series imputation. Observed values are projected onto low-dimensional latent space and coarse values of the missing data are reconstructed without knowing their ground truth values by this unsupervised learning approach. Finally, the reconstructed values are fed into a conditional diffusion model to obtain the precise imputed values of the time series. In this way, LSSDM not only possesses the power to identify the latent distribution but also seamlessly integrates the diffusion model to obtain the high-fidelity imputed values and assess the uncertainty of the dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that LSSDM achieves superior imputation performance while also providing a better explanation and uncertainty analysis of the imputation mechanism. The website of the code is \textit{https://github.com/gorgen2020/LSSDM\_imputation}.

时间序列扩散模型插补不确定性

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