arXiv:2409.09056cs.LGstat.AP2024-09被引 4

融合人口与气候因素,显著提升法医尸僵时间估算精度。

Identifying Factors to Help Improve Existing Decomposition-Based PMI Estimation Methods

  • 用249具遗体数据,结合体型、性别、年龄和天气历史等变量改进模型。
  • 新模型预测误差比旧公式降低48%(PMI)和52%(ADD)。
  • 适合法医、刑侦人员及生物统计研究者参考使用。

准确评估死后间隔(PMI)是法医科学的重要任务。现有方法多基于小样本回归模型,利用分解评分预测PMI或累积积温日(ADD),但精度较低。随着大数据兴起,可使用更大样本提升估算能力。本研究通过整理大规模分解数据集中的249例人类样本,评估已有公式并拟合更复杂模型。结果表明,加入总分解评分(TDS)、人口学特征(年龄、性别、BMI)及气象因素(发现季节、温度历史、湿度历史)后,模型精度显著提升。最优的PMI模型(含TDS、人口与气象因素)调整决定系数R²为0.34,均方根误差RMSE为0.95,比仅用TDS的模型低7%,比原有公式低48%。最优的ADD模型同样表现优异,调整R²达0.52,RMSE为0.89,分别比单一TDS模型低11%,比原公式低52%。研究证明在PMI/ADD模型中纳入人口与环境因素的必要性与可行性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately assessing the postmortem interval (PMI) is an important task in forensic science. Some of the existing techniques use regression models that use a decomposition score to predict the PMI or accumulated degree days (ADD), however, the provided formulas are based on very small samples and the accuracy is low. With the advent of Big Data, much larger samples can be used to improve PMI estimation methods. We, therefore, aim to investigate ways to improve PMI prediction accuracy by (a) using a much larger sample size, (b) employing more advanced linear models, and (c) enhancing models with factors known to affect the human decay process. Specifically, this study involved the curation of a sample of 249 human subjects from a large-scale decomposition dataset, followed by evaluating pre-existing PMI/ADD formulas and fitting increasingly sophisticated models to estimate the PMI/ADD. Results showed that including the total decomposition score (TDS), demographic factors (age, biological sex, and BMI), and weather-related factors (season of discovery, temperature history, and humidity history) increased the accuracy of the PMI/ADD models. Furthermore, the best performing PMI estimation model using the TDS, demographic, and weather-related features as predictors resulted in an adjusted R-squared of 0.34 and an RMSE of 0.95. It had a 7% lower RMSE than a model using only the TDS to predict the PMI and a 48% lower RMSE than the pre-existing PMI formula. The best ADD estimation model, also using the TDS, demographic, and weather-related features as predictors, resulted in an adjusted R-squared of 0.52 and an RMSE of 0.89. It had an 11% lower RMSE than the model using only the TDS to predict the ADD and a 52% lower RMSE than the pre-existing ADD formula. This work demonstrates the need (and way) to incorporate demographic and environmental factors into PMI/ADD estimation models.

法医科学尸僵估算回归模型大数据应用

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