用卷积-循环网络预测德里气温,精度显著优于传统方法。
Weather Prediction Using CNN-LSTM for Time Series Analysis: A Case Study on Delhi Temperature Data
- 结合CNN提取空间特征与LSTM捕捉时序依赖
- 在1996-2017年数据上达到MSE=3.26、RMSE=1.81
- 适合气象预测与时间序列建模研究者参考
随着全球气候变化加剧,精准天气预报对农业、能源管理和环境保护等领域愈发重要。传统基于物理和统计的模型在处理复杂、非线性及动态变化的数据时表现受限,亟需更先进的方法。本研究以1996至2017年德里地区历史气象数据为基础,探索一种混合的CNN-LSTM模型以提升气温预测精度。通过全面的数据预处理与探索性分析构建并训练模型,其中CNN有效提取空间特征,LSTM则捕捉时间依赖关系。实验结果表明,该混合模型在准确性和稳定性上显著优于传统方法,均方误差(MSE)为3.26217,均方根误差(RMSE)为1.80615。模型展现出作为气温预测可靠工具的潜力,为气象预报及相关领域提供重要参考。未来研究应聚焦于优化模型结构、探索更多特征提取技术,并应对过拟合与计算复杂性等挑战。该方法不仅推进了气温预测,也为深度学习在其他时间序列预测任务中的应用奠定基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As global climate change intensifies, accurate weather forecasting is increasingly crucial for sectors such as agriculture, energy management, and environmental protection. Traditional methods, which rely on physical and statistical models, often struggle with complex, nonlinear, and time-varying data, underscoring the need for more advanced techniques. This study explores a hybrid CNN-LSTM model to enhance temperature forecasting accuracy for the Delhi region, using historical meteorological data from 1996 to 2017. We employed both direct and indirect methods, including comprehensive data preprocessing and exploratory analysis, to construct and train our model. The CNN component effectively extracts spatial features, while the LSTM captures temporal dependencies, leading to improved prediction accuracy. Experimental results indicate that the CNN-LSTM model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods in terms of both accuracy and stability, with a mean square error (MSE) of 3.26217 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.80615. The hybrid model demonstrates its potential as a robust tool for temperature prediction, offering valuable insights for meteorological forecasting and related fields. Future research should focus on optimizing model architecture, exploring additional feature extraction techniques, and addressing challenges such as overfitting and computational complexity. This approach not only advances temperature forecasting but also provides a foundation for applying deep learning to other time series forecasting tasks.
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