提出多步嵌入控制模型,显著提升油藏模拟长期预测精度。
Multi-Step Embed to Control: A Novel Deep Learning-based Approach for Surrogate Modelling in Reservoir Simulation
- 基于柯尔莫哥洛夫算子,一次预测多步状态转移
- 饱和度预测误差大幅降低,压力预测更准确
- 适合需要长时模拟的油藏开发决策场景
降阶模型(又称代理模型或近似模型)是计算成本远低于全描述模型的替代方案。近年来,机器学习的引入使该领域受到广泛关注。然而,现有方法如嵌入控制(E2C)和嵌入控制与观测(E2CO)在长期预测中因误差累积而表现不佳,根源在于其单步预测架构。本文提出一种基于深度学习的代理模型——多步嵌入控制模型,用于构建具有更优长期预测性能的代理模型。与E2C和E2CO不同,该网络利用柯尔莫哥洛夫算子在隐空间中同时考虑多个前向转移,使训练阶段可纳入状态快照序列。此外,新设计的损失函数兼顾多步转移并尊重底层物理规律。为验证有效性,该框架应用于水驱条件下的两相(油-水)油藏模型。对比分析表明,所提模型在长期模拟中显著优于传统E2C模型:饱和度分布预测的时序误差明显减少,压力预报精度也得到显著提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Reduced-order models, also known as proxy model or surrogate model, are approximate models that are less computational expensive as opposed to fully descriptive models. With the integration of machine learning, these models have garnered increasing research interests recently. However, many existing reduced-order modeling methods, such as embed to control (E2C) and embed to control and observe (E2CO), fall short in long-term predictions due to the accumulation of prediction errors over time. This issue arises partly from the one-step prediction framework inherent in E2C and E2CO architectures. This paper introduces a deep learning-based surrogate model, referred as multi-step embed-to-control model, for the construction of proxy models with improved long-term prediction performance. Unlike E2C and E2CO, the proposed network considers multiple forward transitions in the latent space at a time using Koopman operator, allowing the model to incorporate a sequence of state snapshots during training phrases. Additionally, the loss function of this novel approach has been redesigned to accommodate these multiple transitions and to respect the underlying physical principles. To validate the efficacy of the proposed method, the developed framework was implemented within two-phase (oil and water) reservoir model under a waterflooding scheme. Comparative analysis demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms the conventional E2C model in long-term simulation scenarios. Notably, there was a substantial reduction in temporal errors in the prediction of saturation profiles and a decent improvement in pressure forecasting accuracy.
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