用大模型让百万级虚拟人更智能,模拟疫情下行为与经济互动。
On the limits of agency in agent-based models
- 设计LLM原型机制,平衡智能与计算开销。
- 成功模拟840万纽约市民,还原疫情中行为与经济关联。
- 开源框架助力政策研究,适合社会仿真与公共决策者。
基于代理的建模(ABM)能揭示复杂系统规律,但受限于计算成本和代理行为简化,尤其在大规模场景下。本文提出新方法,高效集成大语言模型(LLM)到ABM中,实现百万级自适应代理的仿真。引入LLM原型技术,在保持计算可行性的同时提升代理行为复杂性,系统比较从简单启发式代理到全自适应LLM代理的不同架构。通过新冠疫情期间纽约市的案例研究,模拟840万代理,捕捉健康行为与经济结果间的复杂互动。该方法显著增强ABM的预测与反事实分析能力,弥补历史数据在政策设计中的不足。开源实现支持多领域应用,使大规模、高真实感的社会仿真成为可能,为数据驱动的公共政策提供新工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Agent-based modeling (ABM) offers powerful insights into complex systems, but its practical utility has been limited by computational constraints and simplistic agent behaviors, especially when simulating large populations. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) could enhance ABMs with adaptive agents, but their integration into large-scale simulations remains challenging. This work introduces a novel methodology that bridges this gap by efficiently integrating LLMs into ABMs, enabling the simulation of millions of adaptive agents. We present LLM archetypes, a technique that balances behavioral complexity with computational efficiency, allowing for nuanced agent behavior in large-scale simulations. Our analysis explores the crucial trade-off between simulation scale and individual agent expressiveness, comparing different agent architectures ranging from simple heuristic-based agents to fully adaptive LLM-powered agents. We demonstrate the real-world applicability of our approach through a case study of the COVID-19 pandemic, simulating 8.4 million agents representing New York City and capturing the intricate interplay between health behaviors and economic outcomes. Our method significantly enhances ABM capabilities for predictive and counterfactual analyses, addressing limitations of historical data in policy design. By implementing these advances in an open-source framework, we facilitate the adoption of LLM archetypes across diverse ABM applications. Our results show that LLM archetypes can markedly improve the realism and utility of large-scale ABMs while maintaining computational feasibility, opening new avenues for modeling complex societal challenges and informing data-driven policy decisions.
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