用风险最小化方法优化多模型轨迹预测,提升自动驾驶安全性。
Motion Forecasting via Model-Based Risk Minimization

- 将多模型预测转化为可变损失的风险最小化问题
- 在nuScenes数据集上超越当前最先进方法,表现最佳
- 适合自动驾驶轨迹预测与集成学习研究者参考
预测周边交通参与者未来轨迹对自动驾驶车辆实现安全、高效、舒适的路径规划至关重要。尽管模型集成在多个领域提升了预测精度,但在轨迹预测中应用受限,主要因其预测具有多模态特性。本文提出一种适用于轨迹预测的新型采样方法,基于多个模型的预测结果。首先表明,传统的基于预测概率的采样方式因模型间缺乏对齐而降低性能。为解决该问题,我们引入一种新方法,将生成最优轨迹建模为带可变损失函数的风险最小化问题。通过使用最先进的模型作为基学习器,本方法构建出多样且高效的集成系统以实现最优轨迹采样。在nuScenes预测数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法超越当前最先进技术,登顶排行榜。此外,我们还提供了对集成策略的全面实证研究,揭示其有效性。研究结果凸显了先进集成技术在轨迹预测中的潜力,显著提升预测性能,为更可靠的轨迹预测铺平道路。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Forecasting the future trajectories of surrounding agents is crucial for autonomous vehicles to ensure safe, efficient, and comfortable route planning. While model ensembling has improved prediction accuracy in various fields, its application in trajectory prediction is limited due to the multi-modal nature of predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel sampling method applicable to trajectory prediction based on the predictions of multiple models. We first show that conventional sampling based on predicted probabilities can degrade performance due to missing alignment between models. To address this problem, we introduce a new method that generates optimal trajectories from a set of neural networks, framing it as a risk minimization problem with a variable loss function. By using state-of-the-art models as base learners, our approach constructs diverse and effective ensembles for optimal trajectory sampling. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes prediction dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses current state-of-the-art techniques, achieving top ranks on the leaderboard. We also provide a comprehensive empirical study on ensembling strategies, offering insights into their effectiveness. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced ensembling techniques in trajectory prediction, significantly improving predictive performance and paving the way for more reliable predicted trajectories.
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