arXiv:2409.13098cs.SIcs.LG2024-09

用传球网络+数据融合预测足球比赛结果,效果优于单一方法

Predicting soccer matches with complex networks and machine learning

  • 构建传球网络结构+比赛统计数据的混合模型
  • 半场分段网络比整场单网络预测更准
  • 适合体育分析、战术研究者参考

足球吸引众多研究人员和体育行业专业人士的关注,科学在体育中的应用持续增长,性能分析与体育预测产业投入不断增加。本研究旨在(i)突出复杂网络作为预测足球比赛结果的替代工具,(ii)展示传球网络结构分析与比赛统计数据结合如何揭示球队的比赛模式与策略。为此,使用复杂网络指标和比赛统计数据构建机器学习模型,预测不同联赛中球队的胜负。结果表明,基于传球网络的模型与使用通用比赛统计数据的“传统”模型同样有效;更重要的是,两者结合后模型精度高于单独使用任一方法,证明该融合方法能更深入理解比赛模式,揭示球员间关系、位置及互动策略。值得注意的是,网络指标和比赛统计数据对混合模型均具重要影响。此外,采用较低时间粒度的动态网络(如每半场构建一个网络)的表现优于仅使用整场比赛的单个网络。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports prediction industries. This study aims to (i) highlight the use of complex networks as an alternative tool for predicting soccer match outcomes, and (ii) show how the combination of structural analysis of passing networks with match statistical data can provide deeper insights into the game patterns and strategies used by teams. In order to do so, complex network metrics and match statistics were used to build machine learning models that predict the wins and losses of soccer teams in different leagues. The results showed that models based on passing networks were as effective as ``traditional'' models, which use general match statistics. Another finding was that by combining both approaches, more accurate models were obtained than when they were used separately, demonstrating that the fusion of such approaches can offer a deeper understanding of game patterns, allowing the comprehension of tactics employed by teams relationships between players, their positions, and interactions during matches. It is worth mentioning that both network metrics and match statistics were important and impactful for the mixed model. Furthermore, the use of networks with a lower granularity of temporal evolution (such as creating a network for each half of the match) performed better than a single network for the entire game.

足球预测复杂网络机器学习传球分析

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