提出新图神经网络,应对动态数据漂移下的时空预测挑战
Inductive Spatial Temporal Prediction Under Data Drift with Informative Graph Neural Network
- 用关系重要性度量筛选稳定节点与独特空间关系
- 通过时序记忆缓冲区聚焦关键时间点,提升预测精度
- 适合处理城市交通、股市等变化频繁场景的预测任务
归纳式时空预测需将历史数据泛化至未见数据,对高度动态场景(如交通系统、股市)至关重要。然而外部事件(如城市结构扩展、市场崩盘)及新实体(如地点、股票)的出现会引发数据漂移,影响预测准确性。现有方法虽提取不变模式以应对漂移,却忽视模式多样性,泛化能力差。为此,本文设计了信息型图神经网络(INF-GNN),以提炼多样化不变模式并提升数据漂移下的预测性能。首先,构建基于独创度量‘关系重要性’(RI)的信息子图,有效选取稳定实体与独特空间关系,并通过邻居合并实现新实体数据泛化。其次,提出信息型时序记忆缓冲区,利用影响力函数在时间区间内提取有价值的时间戳,帮助模型识别关键时序模式。最后,设计RI损失用于模式整合。在真实数据集上进行的大规模实验表明,面对显著数据漂移,INF-GNN显著优于现有方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Inductive spatial temporal prediction can generalize historical data to predict unseen data, crucial for highly dynamic scenarios (e.g., traffic systems, stock markets). However, external events (e.g., urban structural growth, market crash) and emerging new entities (e.g., locations, stocks) can undermine prediction accuracy by inducing data drift over time. Most existing studies extract invariant patterns to counter data drift but ignore pattern diversity, exhibiting poor generalization to unseen entities. To address this issue, we design an Informative Graph Neural Network (INF-GNN) to distill diversified invariant patterns and improve prediction accuracy under data drift. Firstly, we build an informative subgraph with a uniquely designed metric, Relation Importance (RI), that can effectively select stable entities and distinct spatial relationships. This subgraph further generalizes new entities' data via neighbors merging. Secondly, we propose an informative temporal memory buffer to help the model emphasize valuable timestamps extracted using influence functions within time intervals. This memory buffer allows INF-GNN to discern influential temporal patterns. Finally, RI loss optimization is designed for pattern consolidation. Extensive experiments on real-world dataset under substantial data drift demonstrate that INF-GNN significantly outperforms existing alternatives.
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