用生成模型自建病人图结构,提升多慢性病预测准确率。
A Generative Framework for Predictive Modeling of Multiple Chronic Conditions Using Graph Variational Autoencoder and Bandit-Optimized Graph Neural Network
- 通过图变分自编码器生成患者相似性图,解决缺乏现成图结构的问题。
- 结合带奖励优化的图神经网络,使预测准确率在1592名患者上显著提升。
- 适合关注个性化医疗与慢性病预警的临床研究者和算法工程师。
预测多种慢性病(MCC)的出现对早期干预和个性化医疗至关重要,因MCC显著影响患者预后和医疗成本。图神经网络(GNN)能有效建模复杂图数据,但其依赖现有图结构,而MCC场景中缺乏此类结构。为此,我们提出一种新型生成框架,利用数据分布构建代表性底层图结构,以增强MCC预测分析。该框架采用图变分自编码器(GVAE)捕捉患者数据中的复杂关系,实现对个体健康轨迹的全面理解,并生成多样化的患者随机相似性图,同时保留原始特征。这些由GVAE解码器生成的图被引入带有新颖拉普拉斯正则化技术的GNN进行结构优化,逐步提升预测精度。此外,设计上下文带宽(contextual Bandit)算法评估生成图表现,迭代选择最优图直至模型收敛。我们在包含1,592名患者的大型队列上验证了该上下文带宽算法相较于ε-贪心和多臂老虎机算法的性能优势。这些进展凸显了本方法在变革预测性医疗分析方面的潜力,推动更个性化、主动的MCC管理。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predicting the emergence of multiple chronic conditions (MCC) is crucial for early intervention and personalized healthcare, as MCC significantly impacts patient outcomes and healthcare costs. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are effective methods for modeling complex graph data, such as those found in MCC. However, a significant challenge with GNNs is their reliance on an existing graph structure, which is not readily available for MCC. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative framework for GNNs that constructs a representative underlying graph structure by utilizing the distribution of the data to enhance predictive analytics for MCC. Our framework employs a graph variational autoencoder (GVAE) to capture the complex relationships in patient data. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of individual health trajectories and facilitates the creation of diverse patient stochastic similarity graphs while preserving the original feature set. These variations of patient stochastic similarity graphs, generated from the GVAE decoder, are then processed by a GNN using a novel Laplacian regularization technique to refine the graph structure over time and improves the prediction accuracy of MCC. A contextual Bandit is designed to evaluate the stochastically generated graphs and identify the best-performing graph for the GNN model iteratively until model convergence. We validate the performance of the proposed contextual Bandit algorithm against $\varepsilon$-Greedy and multi-armed Bandit algorithms on a large cohort (n = 1,592) of patients with MCC. These advancements highlight the potential of the proposed approach to transform predictive healthcare analytics, enabling a more personalized and proactive approach to MCC management.
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