提出新模型MIRAGE,更真实地生成人类轨迹数据。
Revisiting Synthetic Human Trajectories: Imitative Generation and Benchmarks Beyond Datasaurus
- 基于人类决策机制建模,不依赖固定统计分布。
- 在四项下游任务中表现优于现有方法10.9%-33.4%。
- 设计新评估体系,突破传统数据相似性局限。
人类轨迹数据在人群管理、疫情防控等应用中至关重要,但因实际限制和隐私问题难以获取。为此,研究者常生成合成轨迹数据以模拟真实行为,通常依赖统计特征和分布相似性。然而,这种做法忽略了复杂的人类移动模式(即“数据龙”现象),导致生成模型设计与评估存在内在偏差。本文提出MIRAGE——一种基于神经时间点过程的仿人轨迹生成模型,融合探索与偏好返回机制,模拟人类决策过程,而非拟合特定分布,从而规避“数据龙”问题。同时,我们构建了超越“数据龙”的任务导向评估协议,在四个典型下游任务中整合多技术与多指标,系统评估生成轨迹的实际效用。在三个真实用户轨迹数据集上,相较于多个基线模型,MIRAGE在统计与分布相似性上提升59.0%-67.7%,在任务评估中性能提高10.9%-33.4%。消融实验验证了关键设计的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Human trajectory data, which plays a crucial role in various applications such as crowd management and epidemic prevention, is challenging to obtain due to practical constraints and privacy concerns. In this context, synthetic human trajectory data is generated to simulate as close as possible to real-world human trajectories, often under summary statistics and distributional similarities. However, these similarities oversimplify complex human mobility patterns (a.k.a. ``Datasaurus''), resulting in intrinsic biases in both generative model design and benchmarks of the generated trajectories. Against this background, we propose MIRAGE, a huMan-Imitative tRAjectory GenErative model designed as a neural Temporal Point Process integrating an Exploration and Preferential Return model. It imitates the human decision-making process in trajectory generation, rather than fitting any specific statistical distributions as traditional methods do, thus avoiding the Datasaurus issue. We also propose a comprehensive task-based evaluation protocol beyond Datasaurus to systematically benchmark trajectory generative models on four typical downstream tasks, integrating multiple techniques and evaluation metrics for each task, to assess the ultimate utility of the generated trajectories. We conduct a thorough evaluation of MIRAGE on three real-world user trajectory datasets against a sizeable collection of baselines. Results show that compared to the best baselines, MIRAGE-generated trajectory data not only achieves the best statistical and distributional similarities with 59.0-67.7% improvement, but also yields the best performance in the task-based evaluation with 10.9-33.4% improvement. A series of ablation studies also validate the key design choices of MIRAGE.
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