arXiv:2409.13936cs.LG2024-09被引 11

用生成模型模拟暴雨与洪涝数据,提升高分辨率洪水概率图的制作效率。

High-Resolution Flood Probability Mapping Using Generative Machine Learning with Large-Scale Synthetic Precipitation and Inundation Data

  • 用条件生成对抗网络合成真实降水点云,构建各区域降水特征池。
  • 生成10000组合成降雨事件,生成多深度洪水概率图。
  • 无需物理模拟即可高效生成高精度洪水风险图,适合城市防灾规划。

高分辨率洪水概率图对评估洪水风险至关重要,但常受限于历史数据不足。传统基于物理模型的模拟需大量计算与时间,难以普及。为此,本文提出降水-洪深生成流水线(Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline),利用生成式机器学习生成大规模合成洪涝数据以生成概率性洪水图。研究聚焦德克萨斯州哈里斯县,先用物理模型训练逐格网洪深估计器,该模型基于降水特征,表现优于通用模型。随后采用条件生成对抗网络(CTGAN)生成合成降水点云,并通过策略阈值筛选以符合实际降水模式。由此构建每个网格的降水特征池,支持定向采样与合成降雨事件生成。共生成10,000个合成事件后,绘制不同淹没深度的概率图。通过相似性与相关性度量验证,合成洪深分布准确。该方法为生成高分辨率洪水概率图所需的合成洪深数据提供了可扩展方案,有助于提升洪水减缓规划能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High-resolution flood probability maps are instrumental for assessing flood risk but are often limited by the availability of historical data. Additionally, producing simulated data needed for creating probabilistic flood maps using physics-based models involves significant computation and time effort, which inhibit its feasibility. To address this gap, this study introduces Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline, a novel methodology that leverages generative machine learning to generate large-scale synthetic inundation data to produce probabilistic flood maps. With a focus on Harris County, Texas, Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline begins with training a cell-wise depth estimator using a number of precipitation-flood events model with a physics-based model. This cell-wise depth estimator, which emphasizes precipitation-based features, outperforms universal models. Subsequently, the Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN) is used to conditionally generate synthetic precipitation point cloud, which are filtered using strategic thresholds to align with realistic precipitation patterns. Hence, a precipitation feature pool is constructed for each cell, enabling strategic sampling and the generation of synthetic precipitation events. After generating 10,000 synthetic events, flood probability maps are created for various inundation depths. Validation using similarity and correlation metrics confirms the accuracy of the synthetic depth distributions. The Precipitation-Flood Depth Generative Pipeline provides a scalable solution to generate synthetic flood depth data needed for high-resolution flood probability maps, which can enhance flood mitigation planning.

洪水预测生成模型城市防灾

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