arXiv:2409.15586eess.SPcs.AI2024-09被引 13

同时预测五项生命体征,提升重症监护室预判准确性

TFT-multi: simultaneous forecasting of vital sign trajectories in the ICU

  • 基于TFT框架构建多变量联合预测模型TFT-multi
  • 在MIMIC和机构数据集上优于单变量与向量回归模型
  • 适合需要实时多指标联动分析的临床决策场景

医疗时间序列轨迹预测是精准医疗与计算方法融合的重要方向。近年来,生成式AI在捕捉时间序列长短程依赖方面表现优异。然而现有方法大多仅能逐个预测单一数值,不符合临床中多指标同步采集的实际需求。本文拓展了多时域时间序列预测工具TFT,提出TFT-multi端到端框架,可同时预测5项重症监护室生命体征:血压、心率、血氧饱和度、体温和呼吸频率。我们假设通过联合预测这些相关性较强的指标,可提升预测精度,尤其在缺失数据较多的情况下。在公开MIMIC数据集及独立机构数据集上验证,该方法显著优于现有单变量预测模型(如原版TFT、Prophet)以及多变量向量回归模型。此外,通过案例分析,展示了模型对实际与假设升压药物使用下血压变化的预测能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Trajectory forecasting in healthcare data has been an important area of research in precision care and clinical integration for computational methods. In recent years, generative AI models have demonstrated promising results in capturing short and long range dependencies in time series data. While these models have also been applied in healthcare, most of them only predict one value at a time, which is unrealistic in a clinical setting where multiple measures are taken at once. In this work, we extend the framework temporal fusion transformer (TFT), a multi-horizon time series prediction tool, and propose TFT-multi, an end-to-end framework that can predict multiple vital trajectories simultaneously. We apply TFT-multi to forecast 5 vital signs recorded in the intensive care unit: blood pressure, pulse, SpO2, temperature and respiratory rate. We hypothesize that by jointly predicting these measures, which are often correlated with one another, we can make more accurate predictions, especially in variables with large missingness. We validate our model on the public MIMIC dataset and an independent institutional dataset, and demonstrate that this approach outperforms state-of-the-art univariate prediction tools including the original TFT and Prophet, as well as vector regression modeling for multivariate prediction. Furthermore, we perform a study case analysis by applying our pipeline to forecast blood pressure changes in response to actual and hypothetical pressor administration.

生命体征预测多变量时间序列重症监护TFT

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