arXiv:2409.15794cs.LGcs.AI2024-09被引 3

首个专用于天然气需求预测的通用大模型,提升跨行业预测准确率。

Towards Universal Large-Scale Foundational Model for Natural Gas Demand Forecasting

  • 基于对比学习与噪声过滤,增强数据表示质量。
  • 在超1万客户数据上测试,均方误差降3.68%,平均绝对误差降6.15%。
  • 适合能源规划、智能电网等需要跨领域预测的场景。

在全球能源战略背景下,精准预测天然气需求对资源高效配置和运营规划至关重要。传统方法难以应对不同行业与商业领域日益复杂多变的用气模式。为此,我们提出首个专为天然气需求预测设计的基础模型。该模型利用对比学习提升真实场景下的预测精度,尤其解决历史数据噪声及相似样本误分类导致的表征质量下降问题。通过在对比学习框架中集成先进去噪技术,显著提升了表征质量,从而改善下游预测效果。此外,模型在预训练阶段进行行业特异性微调,更好捕捉各行业的用气特征。我们在来自恩能集团的大规模数据集上进行了实验,涵盖超过10,000家工业、商业及福利类客户,覆盖多个区域。结果表明,本模型相较现有最优方法,在均方误差(MSE)上相对降低3.68%,在平均绝对标准化误差(MASE)上相对降低6.15%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the context of global energy strategy, accurate natural gas demand forecasting is crucial for ensuring efficient resource allocation and operational planning. Traditional forecasting methods struggle to cope with the growing complexity and variability of gas consumption patterns across diverse industries and commercial sectors. To address these challenges, we propose the first foundation model specifically tailored for natural gas demand forecasting. Foundation models, known for their ability to generalize across tasks and datasets, offer a robust solution to the limitations of traditional methods, such as the need for separate models for different customer segments and their limited generalization capabilities. Our approach leverages contrastive learning to improve prediction accuracy in real-world scenarios, particularly by tackling issues such as noise in historical consumption data and the potential misclassification of similar data samples, which can lead to degradation in the quaility of the representation and thus the accuracy of downstream forecasting tasks. By integrating advanced noise filtering techniques within the contrastive learning framework, our model enhances the quality of learned representations, leading to more accurate predictions. Furthermore, the model undergoes industry-specific fine-tuning during pretraining, enabling it to better capture the unique characteristics of gas consumption across various sectors. We conducted extensive experiments using a large-scale dataset from ENN Group, which includes data from over 10,000 industrial, commercial, and welfare-related customers across multiple regions. Our model outperformed existing state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating a relative improvement in MSE by 3.68\% and in MASE by 6.15\% compared to the best available model.

天然气预测基础模型对比学习能源管理

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