用AI模型从卫星数据中估算地表太阳辐射,精度超传统方法且适配多种气候区。
Surface solar radiation: AI satellite retrieval can outperform Heliosat and generalizes well to other climate zones
- 基于深度学习模拟物理模型,结合地面站数据微调,实现近实时估算。
- 在云层覆盖下(晴空指数<0.8),精度优于Heliosat,山区偏差显著降低。
- 多波段红外与近红外通道对云区估算贡献大,模型泛化能力强。
准确估算地表太阳辐照度(SSI)对太阳能资源评估及电网接入、建筑调控中的光伏预测至关重要。利用静止卫星(如Meteosat)可获取大范围区域的SSI。传统方法如Heliosat依赖物理辐射传输建模。本文首次提出基于机器学习的瞬时SSI卫星反演方法,并验证其在欧洲范围内具备高精度与强泛化能力。该深度学习模型通过数据驱动模拟Heliosat并结合太阳辐射计网络进行微调,可在近实时条件下提供精确估计。引入地面站数据后,模型性能超越Heliosat,尤其在不同气候区和地表反照率下的云层条件(晴空指数<0.8)中表现优异。我们还发现Heliosat在山区存在明显偏差,而使用地面数据训练和微调能有效消除此类偏差。进一步分析表明,在云层条件下,多个近红外与红外波段显著提升模型精度,为未来高精度卫星反演模型开发提供支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate estimates of surface solar irradiance (SSI) are essential for solar resource assessments and solar energy forecasts in grid integration and building control applications. SSI estimates for spatially extended regions can be retrieved from geostationary satellites such as Meteosat. Traditional SSI satellite retrievals like Heliosat rely on physical radiative transfer modelling. We introduce the first machine-learning-based satellite retrieval for instantaneous SSI and demonstrate its capability to provide accurate and generalizable SSI estimates across Europe. Our deep learning retrieval provides near real-time SSI estimates based on data-driven emulation of Heliosat and fine-tuning on pyranometer networks. By including SSI from ground stations, our SSI retrieval model can outperform Heliosat accuracy and generalize well to regions with other climates and surface albedos in cloudy conditions (clear-sky index < 0.8). We also show that the SSI retrieved from Heliosat exhibits large biases in mountain regions, and that training and fine-tuning our retrieval models on SSI data from ground stations strongly reduces these biases, outperforming Heliosat. Furthermore, we quantify the relative importance of the Meteosat channels and other predictor variables like solar zenith angle for the accuracy of our deep learning SSI retrieval model in different cloud conditions. We find that in cloudy conditions multiple near-infrared and infrared channels enhance the performance. Our results can facilitate the development of more accurate satellite retrieval models of surface solar irradiance.
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