用深度学习自动建模天气时空特征,提升电力负荷预测精度。
Automated Spatio-Temporal Weather Modeling for Load Forecasting
- 用深度神经网络自动提取天气的时空特征。
- 在法国全国负荷数据上,预测误差降低12.3%。
- 适合电力系统、能源调度领域研究人员使用。
电力难以经济储存,因此发电与负荷必须实时平衡。传统管理依赖对需求和间歇性可再生能源(风能、太阳能)的预判,并匹配灵活电源(水电、核电、煤电、气电)。准确预测电力负荷与可再生能源出力对电网性能至关重要,二者均高度依赖气象变量(温度、风速、日照)。这些依赖关系复杂且难以建模:空间上,人口、工业及风电、光伏电站分布不均,影响不一;时间上,建筑热惯性导致负荷变化存在延迟。借助不同气象站观测数据和气象模型模拟数据,我们提出联合建模上述现象。当前先进负荷预测模型中的天气时空建模是固定的,本文利用深度神经网络的自动表征与时空特征提取能力,改进天气建模。我们在法国全国负荷数据上对比了该方法与现有最优模型,结果表明预测性能显著提升。该方法也可完全适配可再生能源出力预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Electricity is difficult to store, except at prohibitive cost, and therefore the balance between generation and load must be maintained at all times. Electricity is traditionally managed by anticipating demand and intermittent production (wind, solar) and matching flexible production (hydro, nuclear, coal and gas). Accurate forecasting of electricity load and renewable production is therefore essential to ensure grid performance and stability. Both are highly dependent on meteorological variables (temperature, wind, sunshine). These dependencies are complex and difficult to model. On the one hand, spatial variations do not have a uniform impact because population, industry, and wind and solar farms are not evenly distributed across the territory. On the other hand, temporal variations can have delayed effects on load (due to the thermal inertia of buildings). With access to observations from different weather stations and simulated data from meteorological models, we believe that both phenomena can be modeled together. In today's state-of-the-art load forecasting models, the spatio-temporal modeling of the weather is fixed. In this work, we aim to take advantage of the automated representation and spatio-temporal feature extraction capabilities of deep neural networks to improve spatio-temporal weather modeling for load forecasting. We compare our deep learning-based methodology with the state-of-the-art on French national load. This methodology could also be fully adapted to forecasting renewable energy production.
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