arXiv:2409.16619cs.AI2024-09AAAI被引 14

用动态线索生成未来传播趋势,提升内容热度预测精度。

CasFT: Future Trend Modeling for Information Popularity Prediction with Dynamic Cues-Driven Diffusion Models

  • 通过神经ODE提取动态线索,驱动扩散模型生成未来趋势
  • 在三个真实数据集上提升2.2%至19.3%的预测准确率
  • 适合关注社交内容传播预测的研究者与推荐系统开发者

在线社交平台中信息的快速传播促使学术界和工业界重视内容热度预测,其可应用于推荐系统与战略决策。现有方法主要关注观察期内信息传播的时空模式以预测未来热度,但常忽略未来趋势可能指数增长或停滞,导致预测不确定性。此外,如何将已观察传播过程中的前期动态迁移至未来趋势仍为未解挑战。为此,我们提出CasFT,利用观测到的信息传播链(Cascades)及通过神经微分方程(neural ODEs)提取的动态线索作为条件,引导扩散模型生成未来热度上升趋势,并将该趋势与观测传播的时空模式结合进行最终热度预测。在三个真实数据集上的大量实验表明,与现有最优方法相比,CasFT在不同数据集上分别实现2.2%至19.3%的性能提升。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The rapid spread of diverse information on online social platforms has prompted both academia and industry to realize the importance of predicting content popularity, which could benefit a wide range of applications, such as recommendation systems and strategic decision-making. Recent works mainly focused on extracting spatiotemporal patterns inherent in the information diffusion process within a given observation period so as to predict its popularity over a future period of time. However, these works often overlook the future popularity trend, as future popularity could either increase exponentially or stagnate, introducing uncertainties to the prediction performance. Additionally, how to transfer the preceding-term dynamics learned from the observed diffusion process into future-term trends remains an unexplored challenge. Against this background, we propose CasFT, which leverages observed information Cascades and dynamic cues extracted via neural ODEs as conditions to guide the generation of Future popularity-increasing Trends through a diffusion model. These generated trends are then combined with the spatiotemporal patterns in the observed information cascade to make the final popularity prediction. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that CasFT significantly improves the prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art approaches, yielding 2.2%-19.3% improvement across different datasets.

热度预测扩散模型动态建模

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。