arXiv:2409.17440cs.AI2024-09被引 9

用专家模型同时捕捉交通流变量和先验知识,提升预测精度。

A Time Series is Worth Five Experts: Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts for Traffic Flow Prediction

  • 设计异构专家网络,分头处理时序与变量特征
  • 在两个公开数据集上提升4.37%至11.53%的预测性能
  • 适合交通预测、智能交通系统研究者参考

准确的交通流预测面临挑战,需深入理解时间与空间线索及其多变量间的复杂交互。现有方法多将多变量与空间关系嵌入每个时间步,可能阻碍变量中心学习,导致性能下降。为此,本文提出面向交通流预测的异构专家模型TITAN。TITAN初始包含三个时序中心专家,随后引入低秩自适应机制实现变量中心建模,并通过先验知识监督门控过程确保精准路由。在METR-LA和PEMS-BAY两个公开交通网络数据集上的实验表明,TITAN有效捕捉变量中心依赖关系并实现精确路由,所有评估指标相较此前最先进模型提升约4.37%至11.53%。代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate traffic prediction faces significant challenges, necessitating a deep understanding of both temporal and spatial cues and their complex interactions across multiple variables. Recent advancements in traffic prediction systems are primarily due to the development of complex sequence-centric models. However, existing approaches often embed multiple variables and spatial relationships at each time step, which may hinder effective variable-centric learning, ultimately leading to performance degradation in traditional traffic prediction tasks. To overcome these limitations, we introduce variable-centric and prior knowledge-centric modeling techniques. Specifically, we propose a Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (TITAN) model for traffic flow prediction. TITAN initially consists of three experts focused on sequence-centric modeling. Then, designed a low-rank adaptive method, TITAN simultaneously enables variable-centric modeling. Furthermore, we supervise the gating process using a prior knowledge-centric modeling strategy to ensure accurate routing. Experiments on two public traffic network datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, demonstrate that TITAN effectively captures variable-centric dependencies while ensuring accurate routing. Consequently, it achieves improvements in all evaluation metrics, ranging from approximately 4.37\% to 11.53\%, compared to previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. The code is open at \href{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}.

交通预测混合专家时序建模

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