用混合深度模型预测住院时长,准确率达89%。
Predicting the Stay Length of Patients in Hospitals using Convolutional Gated Recurrent Deep Learning Model
- 结合CNN、GRU和DNN的混合模型捕捉时间与特征变化。
- 10折交叉验证下准确率89%,比LSTM等高出18%以上。
- 适合医疗资源规划与医院管理优化场景。
预测住院时长是制定公共健康策略的关键。本研究提出一种融合多层卷积网络(CNN)、门控循环单元(GRU)和全连接神经网络的混合深度学习模型,其在10折交叉验证中平均准确率达89%,显著优于11种传统及前沿机器学习与深度学习方法,包括LSTM、BiLSTM、GRU和CNN,分别提升19%、18.2%、18.6%和7%。该模型综合分析了医疗机构地理信息、患者年龄、种族、民族等人口统计学特征,以及CCS诊断码、APR DRG码、疾病严重程度指标和住院时长等医疗属性。精准预测有助于医院优化资源配置、降低长期住院成本,并推动新型住院管理策略发展,为精准医疗研究与创新提供新方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predicting hospital length of stay (LoS) stands as a critical factor in shaping public health strategies. This data serves as a cornerstone for governments to discern trends, patterns, and avenues for enhancing healthcare delivery. In this study, we introduce a robust hybrid deep learning model, a combination of Multi-layer Convolutional (CNNs) deep learning, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Dense neural networks, that outperforms 11 conventional and state-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) methodologies in accurately forecasting inpatient hospital stay duration. Our investigation delves into the implementation of this hybrid model, scrutinising variables like geographic indicators tied to caregiving institutions, demographic markers encompassing patient ethnicity, race, and age, as well as medical attributes such as the CCS diagnosis code, APR DRG code, illness severity metrics, and hospital stay duration. Statistical evaluations reveal the pinnacle LoS accuracy achieved by our proposed model (CNN-GRU-DNN), which averages at 89% across a 10-fold cross-validation test, surpassing LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU, and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) by 19%, 18.2%, 18.6%, and 7%, respectively. Accurate LoS predictions not only empower hospitals to optimise resource allocation and curb expenses associated with prolonged stays but also pave the way for novel strategies in hospital stay management. This avenue holds promise for catalysing advancements in healthcare research and innovation, inspiring a new era of precision-driven healthcare practices.
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