arXiv:2409.17889cs.LG2024-09被引 4

用并行CNN-GRU注意力模型融合动态与静态数据,提升电力负荷预测精度。

A multi-source data power load forecasting method using attention mechanism-based parallel cnn-gru

  • 构建并行CNN-GRU结构,分别处理静态与动态特征
  • 注意力机制聚焦关键时空特征,提升信息整合能力
  • 适合需要多源数据融合的电力系统预测场景

精准的电力负荷预测对提升能源效率和保障供电质量至关重要。该问题不仅涉及历史负荷波动等动态因素,还包含气候条件等在特定时段内保持不变的静态因素。本文从模型无关视角出发,提出一种并行结构网络,用于从动态与静态数据中提取关键信息。基于复杂度学习理论,证明并行结构模型相比单一基学习器具有更强的泛化能力,且基学习器间独立性越高,泛化性能越优,表明模型结构本身蕴含重要信息。在此基础上,构建基于注意力机制的并行卷积神经网络(CNN)-门控循环单元(GRU)模型(PCGA),以有效融合动态与静态特征的影响。其中,CNN模块捕捉静态数据的空间特性,GRU模块提取动态时间序列的长期依赖关系,注意力层则聚焦于并行结构所提取的时空特征中的关键信息。通过一系列实验验证了并行结构在多源信息提取与融合方面的优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate power load forecasting is crucial for improving energy efficiency and ensuring power supply quality. Considering the power load forecasting problem involves not only dynamic factors like historical load variations but also static factors such as climate conditions that remain constant over specific periods. From the model-agnostic perspective, this paper proposes a parallel structure network to extract important information from both dynamic and static data. Firstly, based on complexity learning theory, it is demonstrated that models integrated through parallel structures exhibit superior generalization abilities compared to individual base learners. Additionally, the higher the independence between base learners, the stronger the generalization ability of the parallel structure model. This suggests that the structure of machine learning models inherently contains significant information. Building on this theoretical foundation, a parallel convolutional neural network (CNN)-gate recurrent unit (GRU) attention model (PCGA) is employed to address the power load forecasting issue, aiming to effectively integrate the influences of dynamic and static features. The CNN module is responsible for capturing spatial characteristics from static data, while the GRU module captures long-term dependencies in dynamic time series data. The attention layer is designed to focus on key information from the spatial-temporal features extracted by the parallel CNN-GRU. To substantiate the advantages of the parallel structure model in extracting and integrating multi-source information, a series of experiments are conducted.

负荷预测并行结构注意力机制CNN-GRU

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