arXiv:2409.17909q-fin.RMcs.CL2024-09被引 16

用图神经网络分析企业财务指标关系,提升信用风险预测准确率

Unveiling the Potential of Graph Neural Networks in SME Credit Risk Assessment

  • 将29个财务指标建模为节点,通过最大生成树构建企业关联图
  • 经三轮GraphSAGE处理与池化,输出32维嵌入向量用于分类
  • 在真实数据上表现稳健,多级信用评级预测效果显著

本文以图神经网络为技术框架,整合企业财务指标间的内在关联,提出一种企业信用风险评估模型。研究主要包括:首先,基于前人经验选取29个企业财务数据指标,将每个指标抽象为节点,深入分析指标间关系,构建指标相似性矩阵,并利用最大生成树算法实现企业图结构映射;其次,在图的表示学习阶段,构建图神经网络模型获取嵌入表示,将每个节点特征扩展至32维,对图进行三次GraphSAGE操作,通过池化操作聚合结果,最终三个特征向量平均得到图的嵌入表示;最后,采用两层全连接网络构建分类器完成预测任务。在真实企业数据上的实验结果表明,该模型能有效完成企业多级信用等级评估。此外,树状图结构深度刻画了企业各项指标数据的内在联系,根据ROC等评估标准,模型分类效果显著,具有良好的鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper takes the graph neural network as the technical framework, integrates the intrinsic connections between enterprise financial indicators, and proposes a model for enterprise credit risk assessment. The main research work includes: Firstly, based on the experience of predecessors, we selected 29 enterprise financial data indicators, abstracted each indicator as a vertex, deeply analyzed the relationships between the indicators, constructed a similarity matrix of indicators, and used the maximum spanning tree algorithm to achieve the graph structure mapping of enterprises; secondly, in the representation learning phase of the mapped graph, a graph neural network model was built to obtain its embedded representation. The feature vector of each node was expanded to 32 dimensions, and three GraphSAGE operations were performed on the graph, with the results pooled using the Pool operation, and the final output of three feature vectors was averaged to obtain the graph's embedded representation; finally, a classifier was constructed using a two-layer fully connected network to complete the prediction task. Experimental results on real enterprise data show that the model proposed in this paper can well complete the multi-level credit level estimation of enterprises. Furthermore, the tree-structured graph mapping deeply portrays the intrinsic connections of various indicator data of the company, and according to the ROC and other evaluation criteria, the model's classification effect is significant and has good "robustness".

信用风险图神经网络企业财务多级预测

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