arXiv:2409.18491cs.LG2024-09被引 2

用类脑记忆增强扩散模型,提升多变量时间序列预测精度

Treating Brain-inspired Memories as Priors for Diffusion Model to Forecast Multivariate Time Series

  • 设计共享通道的类脑记忆模块,分语义与情景记忆
  • 在8个数据集上显著提升预测准确率与鲁棒性
  • 适合需要捕捉周期与突发模式的时序预测场景

多变量时间序列(MTS)预测在多个应用领域面临挑战,核心难点在于输入长度有限下建模时间模式。这些模式常包含跨通道重复出现的周期性与突发事件。受人类记忆机制启发,本文提出一种共享通道的类脑记忆模块,包含语义记忆(捕获周期性等通用模式)与情景记忆(捕获突发性等特殊模式),并设计相应检索与更新机制。同时,鉴于扩散模型可利用记忆作为先验的能力,构建了类脑记忆增强型扩散模型,为不同通道检索并使用差异化的记忆作为先验进行预测。在8个数据集上的实验表明,该方法能有效捕捉并利用跨通道的多样化重复时间模式,显著提升预测性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series (MTS) involves significant challenges in various application domains. One immediate challenge is modeling temporal patterns with the finite length of the input. These temporal patterns usually involve periodic and sudden events that recur across different channels. To better capture temporal patterns, we get inspiration from humans' memory mechanisms and propose a channel-shared, brain-inspired memory module for MTS. Specifically, brain-inspired memory comprises semantic and episodic memory, where the former is used to capture general patterns, such as periodic events, and the latter is employed to capture special patterns, such as sudden events, respectively. Meanwhile, we design corresponding recall and update mechanisms to better utilize these patterns. Furthermore, acknowledging the capacity of diffusion models to leverage memory as a prior, we present a brain-inspired memory-augmented diffusion model. This innovative model retrieves relevant memories for different channels, utilizing them as distinct priors for MTS predictions. This incorporation significantly enhances the accuracy and robustness of predictions. Experimental results on eight datasets consistently validate the superiority of our approach in capturing and leveraging diverse recurrent temporal patterns across different channels.

时间序列扩散模型类脑记忆

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