arXiv:2409.18885cs.LG2024-09ICLR被引 8

构建高分辨率极端天气数据集,推动预报模型精准化

HR-Extreme: A High-Resolution Dataset for Extreme Weather Forecasting

  • 基于3公里实时气象数据构建极端天气专用数据集
  • 发现极端天气预测误差显著高于整体水平
  • 提出新基准模型HR-Heim,提升极端事件预测性能

深度学习在天气预报中的应用已带来显著进展,如提升分辨率和延长预测周期。然而,以往研究普遍忽视极端天气事件,缺乏专门针对此类事件的高质量数据集。本文基于美国国家海洋与大气管理局(NOAA)提供的3公里实时高分辨率快速刷新(HRRR)数据,构建了名为HR-Extreme的综合性极端天气数据集。我们评估了当前最先进的深度学习模型和数值天气预报(NWP)系统在该数据集上的表现,并提出了一个改进的基线深度学习模型HR-Heim,其在通用损失和极端天气任务上均优于现有方法。结果表明,极端天气案例的预测误差远高于整体平均误差,是天气预报中主要的误差来源。这一发现强调未来研究需聚焦于提升极端天气预报精度,以增强实际应用价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The application of large deep learning models in weather forecasting has led to significant advancements in the field, including higher-resolution forecasting and extended prediction periods exemplified by models such as Pangu and Fuxi. Despite these successes, previous research has largely been characterized by the neglect of extreme weather events, and the availability of datasets specifically curated for such events remains limited. Given the critical importance of accurately forecasting extreme weather, this study introduces a comprehensive dataset that incorporates high-resolution extreme weather cases derived from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data, a 3-km real-time dataset provided by NOAA. We also evaluate the current state-of-the-art deep learning models and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems on HR-Extreme, and provide a improved baseline deep learning model called HR-Heim which has superior performance on both general loss and HR-Extreme compared to others. Our results reveal that the errors of extreme weather cases are significantly larger than overall forecast error, highlighting them as an crucial source of loss in weather prediction. These findings underscore the necessity for future research to focus on improving the accuracy of extreme weather forecasts to enhance their practical utility.

极端天气高分辨率数据集预报模型

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