arXiv:2409.19518cs.LGcs.AI2024-09被引 4

用基态算子融合预测与数据同化,提升非线性系统长期预报精度。

KODA: A Data-Driven Recursive Model for Time Series Forecasting and Data Assimilation using Koopman Operators

  • 分离物理动态与时变残差,前者由基态算子建模,后者用可学习递归模型捕捉。
  • 在电力、气象等5个基准上实现优于现有方法的长期预测性能。
  • 支持推理时在线修正,适合需实时更新的动态系统应用。

基于基态算子的方法在复杂非线性动力系统(NLDS)生成的时间序列预测中展现出巨大潜力。尽管能捕捉系统的隐状态表示,但在真实数据上进行长期预测仍面临挑战,主要因现实世界中的系统常表现出时变行为,导致非平稳性难以建模。此外,现有方法缺乏系统性的数据驱动策略来实现数据同化——即在预测过程中实时利用噪声测量值。为解决上述问题,我们提出一种基于基态算子的方法(命名为KODA:Koopman Operator with Data Assimilation),将预测与数据同化统一建模。具体地,采用傅里叶域滤波器将数据分解为物理分量(可用基态算子精确表示)和残差动态(反映局部或时变行为,由灵活且可学习的递归模型捕获)。通过精心设计的架构与训练准则,确保该分解带来稳定且长期的预测结果。此外,引入一种课程修正策略,在推理阶段利用新测量值进行数据同化。所提方法完全数据驱动,可端到端训练。大量实验表明,KODA在电力、温度、天气、Lorenz 63及Duffing振子等多个时间序列基准上均超越现有最先进方法,验证了其在预测、数据同化和状态估计三方面的卓越性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Approaches based on Koopman operators have shown great promise in forecasting time series data generated by complex nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS). Although such approaches are able to capture the latent state representation of a NLDS, they still face difficulty in long term forecasting when applied to real world data. Specifically many real-world NLDS exhibit time-varying behavior, leading to nonstationarity that is hard to capture with such models. Furthermore they lack a systematic data-driven approach to perform data assimilation, that is, exploiting noisy measurements on the fly in the forecasting task. To alleviate the above issues, we propose a Koopman operator-based approach (named KODA - Koopman Operator with Data Assimilation) that integrates forecasting and data assimilation in NLDS. In particular we use a Fourier domain filter to disentangle the data into a physical component whose dynamics can be accurately represented by a Koopman operator, and residual dynamics that represents the local or time varying behavior that are captured by a flexible and learnable recursive model. We carefully design an architecture and training criterion that ensures this decomposition lead to stable and long-term forecasts. Moreover, we introduce a course correction strategy to perform data assimilation with new measurements at inference time. The proposed approach is completely data-driven and can be learned end-to-end. Through extensive experimental comparisons we show that KODA outperforms existing state of the art methods on multiple time series benchmarks such as electricity, temperature, weather, lorenz 63 and duffing oscillator demonstrating its superior performance and efficacy along the three tasks a) forecasting, b) data assimilation and c) state prediction.

时间序列基态算子数据同化非线性系统

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