用扩散模型修复时空数据缺失,提升预测准确率。
Causal Deciphering and Inpainting in Spatio-Temporal Dynamics via Diffusion Model
- 分两阶段识别因果区域,用扩散模型生成缺失数据。
- 在5个真实数据集上提升4.3%至77.3%,显著优于传统方法。
- 适合关注时空建模可解释性与数据增强的研究者。
时空(ST)预测在气象预报、人类移动感知等地球科学领域备受关注。然而,传感器部署成本高导致数据稀缺且分布不均。现有模型过度定制化且缺乏因果关系,削弱了泛化与可解释性。为此,我们提出一种因果框架CaPaint,通过两阶段过程识别因果区域,并赋予模型因果推理能力。进一步地,利用后门调整处理上游识别出的非因果子区域,采用微调的无条件扩散概率模型(DDPM)作为生成先验,对被标记为环境部分的掩码区域进行填充,实现对潜在数据分布的可靠外推。该方法将最优时空因果发现模型的数据生成复杂度从指数级降至准线性水平。在五个真实世界时空基准上的大量实验表明,引入CaPaint可使模型性能提升4.3%至77.3%。相较于传统主流时空增强方法,本工作凸显了扩散模型在时空增强中的潜力,为该领域提供了新范式。项目代码已公开于https://anonymous.4open.science/r/12345-DFCC。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Spatio-temporal (ST) prediction has garnered a De facto attention in earth sciences, such as meteorological prediction, human mobility perception. However, the scarcity of data coupled with the high expenses involved in sensor deployment results in notable data imbalances. Furthermore, models that are excessively customized and devoid of causal connections further undermine the generalizability and interpretability. To this end, we establish a causal framework for ST predictions, termed CaPaint, which targets to identify causal regions in data and endow model with causal reasoning ability in a two-stage process. Going beyond this process, we utilize the back-door adjustment to specifically address the sub-regions identified as non-causal in the upstream phase. Specifically, we employ a novel image inpainting technique. By using a fine-tuned unconditional Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) as the generative prior, we in-fill the masks defined as environmental parts, offering the possibility of reliable extrapolation for potential data distributions. CaPaint overcomes the high complexity dilemma of optimal ST causal discovery models by reducing the data generation complexity from exponential to quasi-linear levels. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world ST benchmarks demonstrate that integrating the CaPaint concept allows models to achieve improvements ranging from 4.3% to 77.3%. Moreover, compared to traditional mainstream ST augmenters, CaPaint underscores the potential of diffusion models in ST enhancement, offering a novel paradigm for this field. Our project is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/12345-DFCC.
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