arXiv:2409.19713cs.LGcs.SY2024-09被引 1

用元数据估算低压电网伪测量,助力电网管理

Generating peak-aware pseudo-measurements for low-voltage feeders using metadata of distribution system operators

  • 基于馈线元数据和回归模型生成伪测量
  • 在2323个馈线上验证,峰值特征匹配度高
  • 适合电网规划与负荷预测研究者使用

配电系统运营商(DSOs)面临电网重构与源荷协同管理等挑战,但许多低压(LV)电网缺乏测量设备。本文提出一种基于馈线元数据的伪测量估计方法,利用连接点数量、用户/发电装机容量及计费数据,并结合气象、日历和时间戳信息作为特征,通过XGBoost、MLP和线性回归模型进行预测。以实际测量值为目标,对包含2323条低压馈线的真实数据集进行评估,引入受BigDEAL挑战启发的峰值指标,衡量用电与反向供电的峰值幅值、时序与形状。结果表明,XGBoost与MLP优于线性回归,且能适应不同天气、日历和时间条件,生成符合实际的负荷曲线。该方法可拓展至变电站变压器等层级,支持负荷建模、状态估计与低压负荷预测研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Distribution system operators (DSOs) must cope with new challenges such as the reconstruction of distribution grids along climate neutrality pathways or the ability to manage and control consumption and generation in the grid. In order to meet the challenges, measurements within the distribution grid often form the basis for DSOs. Hence, it is an urgent problem that measurement devices are not installed in many low-voltage (LV) grids. In order to overcome this problem, we present an approach to estimate pseudo-measurements for non-measured LV feeders based on the metadata of the respective feeder using regression models. The feeder metadata comprise information about the number of grid connection points, the installed power of consumers and producers, and billing data in the downstream LV grid. Additionally, we use weather data, calendar data and timestamp information as model features. The existing measurements are used as model target. We extensively evaluate the estimated pseudo-measurements on a large real-world dataset with 2,323 LV feeders characterized by both consumption and feed-in. For this purpose, we introduce peak metrics inspired by the BigDEAL challenge for the peak magnitude, timing and shape for both consumption and feed-in. As regression models, we use XGBoost, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a linear regression (LR). We observe that XGBoost and MLP outperform the LR. Furthermore, the results show that the approach adapts to different weather, calendar and timestamp conditions and produces realistic load curves based on the feeder metadata. In the future, the approach can be adapted to other grid levels like substation transformers and can supplement research fields like load modeling, state estimation and LV load forecasting.

电网优化伪测量负荷预测机器学习

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