提出Poly-Mamba模型,显式建模多变量时间序列的时变通道依赖关系。
A SSM is Polymerized from Multivariate Time Series
- 将正交基扩展为可变混合项的多元空间,显式建模通道随时间变化的依赖关系
- 在6个真实数据集上优于现有方法,尤其在高通道数复杂相关场景下表现突出
- 适合处理具有复杂时变关联性的多变量时间序列预测任务
针对多变量时间序列(MTS)任务,现有状态空间模型(SSM)沿用Transformer范式,未能显式建模通道随时间变化的依赖关系(CDT)。本文从SSM推导出发,通过正交函数基近似连续更新函数,提出Poly-Mamba模型。其核心是将原始正交基空间扩展为包含可变混合项的多元正交函数空间,并通过投影实现对CDT的加权系数描述。为此设计了多元正交多项式近似(MOPA),并引入线性通道混合(LCM)与阶次组合方法,自适应生成不同通道的CDT模式。在6个真实数据集上的实验表明,该方法显著优于当前最优方法,尤其在通道数量大、相关性强的数据集上优势明显。代码与日志已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
For multivariate time series (MTS) tasks, previous state space models (SSMs) followed the modeling paradigm of Transformer-based methods. However, none of them explicitly model the complex dependencies of MTS: the Channel Dependency variations with Time (CDT). In view of this, we delve into the derivation of SSM, which involves approximating continuously updated functions by orthogonal function basis. We then develop Poly-Mamba, a novel method for MTS forecasting. Its core concept is to expand the original orthogonal function basis space into a multivariate orthogonal function space containing variable mixing terms, and make a projection on this space so as to explicitly describe the CDT by weighted coefficients. In Poly-Mamba, we propose the Multivariate Orthogonal Polynomial Approximation (MOPA) as a simplified implementation of this concept. For the simple linear relationship between channels, we propose Linear Channel Mixing (LCM) and generate CDT patterns adaptively for different channels through a proposed Order Combining method. Experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that Poly-Mamba outperforms the SOTA methods, especially when dealing with datasets having a large number of channels and complex correlations. The codes and log files will be released at: https://github.com/Joeland4/Poly-Mamba.
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