arXiv:2409.20371cs.LGcs.AI2024-09NeurIPS被引 89

提出频域自适应归一化,同时处理时间序列的动态趋势与周期模式。

Frequency Adaptive Normalization For Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting

  • 用傅里叶变换提取每条序列的主要频率成分
  • 通过MLP建模输入输出频率差异,提升预测精度
  • 可适配任意模型,在8个数据集上平均提升7.76%~37.90%

时间序列预测常需应对趋势和季节性随时间变化的非平稳数据。现有可逆实例归一化虽能缓解趋势影响,但难以捕捉季节模式。本文提出频域自适应归一化(FAN),通过傅里叶变换识别每条序列中主导的频率成分,以覆盖主要非平稳因素,并将输入与输出间频率成分的差异显式建模为一个简单的MLP预测任务。FAN是模型无关方法,可应用于任意预测骨干网络。我们在四个主流预测模型上验证其性能,在八个基准数据集上实现均方误差(MSE)7.76%~37.90%的显著提升。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns. To address the non-stationarity, reversible instance normalization has been recently proposed to alleviate impacts from the trend with certain statistical measures, e.g., mean and variance. Although they demonstrate improved predictive accuracy, they are limited to expressing basic trends and are incapable of handling seasonal patterns. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a new instance normalization solution, called frequency adaptive normalization (FAN), which extends instance normalization in handling both dynamic trend and seasonal patterns. Specifically, we employ the Fourier transform to identify instance-wise predominant frequent components that cover most non-stationary factors. Furthermore, the discrepancy of those frequency components between inputs and outputs is explicitly modeled as a prediction task with a simple MLP model. FAN is a model-agnostic method that can be applied to arbitrary predictive backbones. We instantiate FAN on four widely used forecasting models as the backbone and evaluate their prediction performance improvements on eight benchmark datasets. FAN demonstrates significant performance advancement, achieving 7.76% ~ 37.90% average improvements in MSE.

时间序列归一化频域分析非平稳

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