用大模型预测地铁延误时乘客换乘选择,解决数据稀疏难题。
DelayPTC-LLM: Metro Passenger Travel Choice Prediction under Train Delays with Large Language Models
- 设计提示工程引导大模型分析乘客异质性与延误特征
- 在真实深圳地铁数据上预测准确率显著优于传统模型
- 适合交通应急决策与智能调度系统研发者参考
地铁延误在网络化运营下会快速传播,给运营部门带来严峻挑战。准确预测延误时乘客的出行选择,可为客流重分布提供可解释洞察,助力应急响应与服务恢复。然而,乘客出行选择多样、延误事件稀少,导致数据稀疏与样本不平衡问题,传统机器学习方法难以应对。鉴于大语言模型(LLM)在文本理解与小样本/零样本学习方面的优势,本文提出基于大语言模型的地铁延误乘客出行选择预测框架(DelayPTC-LLM)。通过精心设计的提示工程,引导LLM综合考虑乘客异质性与延误特征进行预测与推理。利用深圳地铁的真实数据(包括AFC数据与详细延误日志),对比实验表明,该框架在复杂稀疏数据下的表现显著优于传统模型,验证了其在预测精度与提供可行动洞察方面的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Train delays can propagate rapidly throughout the Urban Rail Transit (URT) network under networked operation conditions, posing significant challenges to operational departments. Accurately predicting passenger travel choices under train delays can provide interpretable insights into the redistribution of passenger flow, offering crucial decision support for emergency response and service recovery. However, the diversity of travel choices due to passenger heterogeneity and the sparsity of delay events leads to issues of data sparsity and sample imbalance in the travel choices dataset under metro delays. It is challenging to model this problem using traditional machine learning approaches, which typically rely on large, balanced datasets. Given the strengths of large language models (LLMs) in text processing, understanding, and their capabilities in small-sample and even zero-shot learning, this paper proposes a novel Passenger Travel Choice prediction framework under metro delays with the Large Language Model (DelayPTC-LLM). The well-designed prompting engineering is developed to guide the LLM in making and rationalizing predictions about travel choices, taking into account passenger heterogeneity and features of the delay events. Utilizing real-world data from Shenzhen Metro, including Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data and detailed delay logs, a comparative analysis of DelayPTC-LLM with traditional prediction models demonstrates the superior capability of LLMs in handling complex, sparse datasets commonly encountered under disruption of transportation systems. The results validate the advantages of DelayPTC-LLM in terms of predictive accuracy and its potential to provide actionable insights for big traffic data.
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