用时空变压器+记忆网络，实时预测外卖压力信号

On-demand Food Delivery (OFD) services have become very common around the world. For example, on the Ele.me platform, users place more than 15 million food orders every day. Predicting the Real-time Pressure Signal (RPS) is crucial for OFD services, as it is primarily used to measure the current status of pressure on the logistics system. When RPS rises, the pressure increases, and the platform needs to quickly take measures to prevent the logistics system from being overloaded. Usually, the average delivery time for all orders within a business district is used to represent RPS. Existing research on OFD services primarily focuses on predicting the delivery time of orders, while relatively less attention has been given to the study of the RPS. Previous research directly applies general models such as DeepFM, RNN, and GNN for prediction, but fails to adequately utilize the unique temporal and spatial characteristics of OFD services, and faces issues with insufficient sensitivity during sudden severe weather conditions or peak periods. To address these problems, this paper proposes a new method based on Spatio-Temporal Transformer and Memory Network (STTM). Specifically, we use a novel Spatio-Temporal Transformer structure to learn logistics features across temporal and spatial dimensions and encode the historical information of a business district and its neighbors, thereby learning both temporal and spatial information. Additionally, a Memory Network is employed to increase sensitivity to abnormal events. Experimental results on the real-world dataset show that STTM significantly outperforms previous methods in both offline experiments and the online A/B test, demonstrating the effectiveness of this method.