arXiv:2410.00373cs.LGcs.AI2024-10被引 3

提出新框架应对交通数据空间分布变化,显著提升模型泛化能力。

Robust Traffic Forecasting against Spatial Shift over Years

  • 用专家混合机制学习多个图生成器,动态适应新空间关系。
  • 在新提出的交通OOD基准上,性能比现有方法提升超20%。
  • 可无缝嵌入任意时空模型,适合需长期稳定预测的场景。

近年来,时空图神经网络(ST-GNNs)和Transformer在捕捉交通数据的时间与空间相关性方面展现出巨大潜力。然而,现有研究缺乏专门针对交通分布外(OOD)场景的数据集,且多数方法仅限于已有数据测试或依赖人工修改数据,导致当前时空模型在分布外情形下的泛化能力仍不明确。本文通过新提出的交通OOD基准评估前沿模型,发现其性能显著下降。经分析,原因在于模型无法适应未见过的空间关系。为此,我们提出一种新型多专家(MoE)框架,在训练中学习一组图生成器(即graphons),并根据测试时的新环境条件自适应组合生成新图,以应对空间分布偏移。该方法进一步扩展至Transformer架构,取得显著提升。本方法简洁高效,可无缝集成到任意时空模型中,在处理空间动态变化方面优于现有最先进方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent advancements in Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) and Transformers have demonstrated promising potential for traffic forecasting by effectively capturing both temporal and spatial correlations. The generalization ability of spatiotemporal models has received considerable attention in recent scholarly discourse. However, no substantive datasets specifically addressing traffic out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios have been proposed. Existing ST-OOD methods are either constrained to testing on extant data or necessitate manual modifications to the dataset. Consequently, the generalization capacity of current spatiotemporal models in OOD scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art models using newly proposed traffic OOD benchmarks and, surprisingly, find that these models experience a significant decline in performance. Through meticulous analysis, we attribute this decline to the models' inability to adapt to previously unobserved spatial relationships. To address this challenge, we propose a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework, which learns a set of graph generators (i.e., graphons) during training and adaptively combines them to generate new graphs based on novel environmental conditions to handle spatial distribution shifts during testing. We further extend this concept to the Transformer architecture, achieving substantial improvements. Our method is both parsimonious and efficacious, and can be seamlessly integrated into any spatiotemporal model, outperforming current state-of-the-art approaches in addressing spatial dynamics.

交通预测图神经网络OOD泛化MoE

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