用核方法从复杂系统中自动发现可预测的结构特征。
Inferring Kernel $ε$-Machines: Discovering Structure in Complex Systems
- 将因果状态映射到核希尔伯特空间,实现跨系统结构发现。
- 在4类不同系统上验证,均能有效提取预测性特征。
- 适合研究高维、随机性强的复杂系统的研究者使用。
此前我们证明,计算力学中的因果状态——即对随机动力系统具有预测等价性的轨迹类别——可被嵌入再生核希尔伯特空间。该方法适用于多种观测数据与系统,直接推断因果结构。本文进一步扩展该方法,显式引入其生成的因果扩散成分,将核因果状态估计表示为低维空间中的坐标。每个成分可从数据中提取预测性特征。我们在四个案例中验证:第一,一个可解析求解的单摆系统;第二,正丁烷的分子动力学轨迹,具有已知能量景观的高维系统;第三,最长连续记录的月均太阳黑子序列;第四,十年间对同一农田生态系统的多源异构观测数据。结果表明,经验核因果状态算法在维度与随机性差异极大的系统中均能稳健发现预测性结构。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Previously, we showed that computational mechanic's causal states -- predictively-equivalent trajectory classes for a stochastic dynamical system -- can be cast into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The result is a widely-applicable method that infers causal structure directly from very different kinds of observations and systems. Here, we expand this method to explicitly introduce the causal diffusion components it produces. These encode the kernel causal-state estimates as a set of coordinates in a reduced dimension space. We show how each component extracts predictive features from data and demonstrate their application on four examples: first, a simple pendulum -- an exactly solvable system; second, a molecular-dynamic trajectory of $n$-butane -- a high-dimensional system with a well-studied energy landscape; third, the monthly sunspot sequence -- the longest-running available time series of direct observations; and fourth, multi-year observations of an active crop field -- a set of heterogeneous observations of the same ecosystem taken for over a decade. In this way, we demonstrate that the empirical kernel causal-states algorithm robustly discovers predictive structures for systems with widely varying dimensionality and stochasticity.
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