通过频域分析优化时间序列归一化,提升非平稳预测效果
FredNormer: Frequency Domain Normalization for Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting
- 从频域视角设计自适应权重机制,动态强化关键频率成分
- 在ETTm2数据集上使模型平均MSE降低33.3%~55.3%
- 可直接嵌入现有模型,不增加计算开销,适合时序预测任务
近期基于归一化的方法在应对分布偏移问题上表现优异,有助于非平稳时间序列预测。然而,这些方法在时域操作,难以充分捕捉频域中更显著的动态模式,导致效果受限。本文首次从理论上分析归一化对频域成分的影响,证明现有方法会均匀缩放非零频率,难以区分对预测更有鲁棒性的成分。为此,提出FredNormer,从频域观察数据,自适应增强关键频率成分。其包含两个模块:基于频率稳定性的统计度量用于归一化输入样本,以及可学习加权层以调整稳定性并引入样本特异性变化。该模块为即插即用设计,效率与现有方法相当。大量实验表明,FredNormer使骨干预测模型在ETTm2数据集上的平均MSE降低33.3%和55.3%;相较于基线归一化方法,在28个设置中取得18项第一、6项第二的成绩。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent normalization-based methods have shown great success in tackling the distribution shift issue, facilitating non-stationary time series forecasting. Since these methods operate in the time domain, they may fail to fully capture the dynamic patterns that are more apparent in the frequency domain, leading to suboptimal results. This paper first theoretically analyzes how normalization methods affect frequency components. We prove that the current normalization methods that operate in the time domain uniformly scale non-zero frequencies, and thus, they struggle to determine components that contribute to more robust forecasting. Therefore, we propose FredNormer, which observes datasets from a frequency perspective and adaptively up-weights the key frequency components. To this end, FredNormer consists of two components: a statistical metric that normalizes the input samples based on their frequency stability and a learnable weighting layer that adjusts stability and introduces sample-specific variations. Notably, FredNormer is a plug-and-play module, which does not compromise the efficiency compared to existing normalization methods. Extensive experiments show that FredNormer improves the averaged MSE of backbone forecasting models by 33.3% and 55.3% on the ETTm2 dataset. Compared to the baseline normalization methods, FredNormer achieves 18 top-1 results and 6 top-2 results out of 28 settings.
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