arXiv:2410.02311physics.space-phastro-ph.EP2024-10

用神经网络建模地磁平静水平,提升中纬度地磁指数精度。

A novel neural network-based approach to derive a geomagnetic baseline for robust characterization of geomagnetic indices at mid-latitude

  • 基于LSTM神经网络预测地磁日变化平静值,融合长期趋势。
  • 新基线对地磁暴不敏感,更准确反映太阳扰动强度。
  • 可实时运行,支持1天和27天提前预测,适合空间天气业务。

基于地面磁测数据的地磁指数用于表征太阳-地球相互作用强度。中纬度地区常用的Kp指数时间分辨率低且量级粗糙。为构建新一代地磁指数,需建立能定义无太阳驱动扰动的平静水平基准。本文以法国香邦拉福雷站数据为基础,通过滤波技术将观测值分解为昼夜以上变化与24小时、12小时、8小时、6小时周期分量(即日变化)。结合相关性分析与SHAP解释工具,识别出主导日变化的关键参数。利用至少11年、每小时采样的数据训练长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络,预测日平静变化,并将其与代表内在地磁长期变化的线性外推趋势相加,形成新地磁基准。该基准对地磁暴不敏感,更适合定义精确反映太阳驱动扰动强度的地磁指数。方法快速可扩展,适用于实时运行。文中还提出1天和27天前向预测策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Geomagnetic indices derived from ground magnetic measurements characterize the intensity of solar-terrestrial interaction. The \textit{Kp} index derived from multiple magnetic observatories at mid-latitude has commonly been used for space weather operations. Yet, its temporal cadence is low and its intensity scale is crude. To derive a new generation of geomagnetic indices, it is desirable to establish a geomagnetic `baseline' that defines the quiet-level of activity without solar-driven perturbations. We present a new approach for deriving a baseline that represents the time-dependent quiet variations focusing on data from Chambon-la-Forêt, France. Using a filtering technique, the measurements are first decomposed into the above-diurnal variation and the sum of 24h, 12h, 8h, and 6h filters, called the daily variation. Using correlation tools and SHapley Additive exPlanations, we identify parameters that dominantly correlate with the daily variation. Here, we predict the daily `quiet' variation using a long short-term memory neural network trained using at least 11 years of data at 1h cadence. This predicted daily quiet variation is combined with linear extrapolation of the secular trend associated with the intrinsic geomagnetic variability, which dominates the above-diurnal variation, to yield a new geomagnetic baseline. Unlike the existing baselines, our baseline is insensitive to geomagnetic storms. It is thus suitable for defining geomagnetic indices that accurately reflect the intensity of solar-driven perturbations. Our methodology is quick to implement and scalable, making it suitable for real-time operation. Strategies for operational forecasting of our geomagnetic baseline 1 day and 27 days in advance are presented.

地磁建模LSTM空间天气基准生成

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