arXiv:2410.02774eess.SPcs.CE2024-10被引 3

用逆优化方法推断电网背后未观测的用电行为,提升对灵活用电的预测能力。

Estimating the Unobservable Components of Electricity Demand Response with Inverse Optimization

  • 通过逆优化从净用电量反推基荷、灵活用电和自发电三类成分
  • 在无设备级数据情况下,准确识别出价格敏感的灵活用电模式
  • 适合电网运营商和电力零售商用于精准负荷预测与政策设计

理解并预测电价变化下的电力需求响应对系统运营商、零售商和监管机构至关重要。传统机器学习与时间序列分析适用于长期缓慢演变的常规用电模式,但光伏+储能系统、电动汽车等具备灵活性的主动用户出现后,用电行为更复杂,其驱动因素常无法被零售商和系统运营商直接观测。实践中,仅能监测电网接入点的净用电量,而所有“表后”活动(如灵活性利用)均隐藏其中。这些表后行为可能由第三方代理控制或受激励型电价引导,影响零售商收益与系统负荷,但细节只能间接推断。本文将净用电量分解为基荷、灵活用电和自发电三部分,每部分对市场价格信号呈非线性响应。随着灵活用电与自发电比例上升,现有方法是否仍有效成为关键问题。为此,本文评估数据驱动的逆优化(IO)方法的潜力,该方法可在无需直接观测表后行为或设备级计量的情况下,刻画分解后的用电模式。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Understanding and predicting the electricity demand responses to prices are critical activities for system operators, retailers, and regulators. While conventional machine learning and time series analyses have been adequate for the routine demand patterns that have adapted only slowly over many years, the emergence of active consumers with flexible assets such as solar-plus-storage systems, and electric vehicles, introduces new challenges. These active consumers exhibit more complex consumption patterns, the drivers of which are often unobservable to the retailers and system operators. In practice, system operators and retailers can only monitor the net demand (metered at grid connection points), which reflects the overall energy consumption or production exchanged with the grid. As a result, all "behind-the-meter" activities-such as the use of flexibility-remain hidden from these entities. Such behind-the-meter behavior may be controlled by third party agents or incentivized by tariffs; in either case, the retailer's revenue and the system loads would be impacted by these activities behind the meter, but their details can only be inferred. We define the main components of net demand, as baseload, flexible, and self-generation, each having nonlinear responses to market price signals. As flexible demand response and self generation are increasing, this raises a pressing question of whether existing methods still perform well and, if not, whether there is an alternative way to understand and project the unobserved components of behavior. In response to this practical challenge, we evaluate the potential of a data-driven inverse optimization (IO) methodology. This approach characterizes decomposed consumption patterns without requiring direct observation of behind-the-meter behavior or device-level metering [...]

电力需求响应逆优化智能电网

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