arXiv:2410.02805eess.IVcs.AI2024-10

让神经网络学会判断自己该不该被信任,提升医疗诊断可靠性

Beyond Uncertainty Quantification: Learning Uncertainty for Trust-Informed Neural Network Decisions - A Case Study in COVID-19 Classification

  • 用双层模型:基础模型出结果+元模型判断是否可信
  • 在新冠胸部X光数据集上,错误高自信预测减少超60%
  • 适合医疗等高风险场景,帮医生快速识别需复核的判断

在医疗诊断等高风险应用中,可靠的不确定性量化至关重要,因为高自信但错误的预测会损害对自动化系统的信任。传统方法依赖预设置信度阈值,将高于阈值的预测视为可信,低于则视为不确定,却未验证高自信预测是否正确,导致错误高自信情况仍可能发生。为此,本研究提出一种不确定性感知的堆叠神经网络框架,通过学习何时应信任预测来扩展传统不确定性量化。该框架包含两层:基础模型生成预测及不确定性估计,元模型则学习赋予信任标签,区分高自信且正确的案例与需专家复核的情况。在COVIDx CXR-4数据集上,针对多个置信度阈值和预训练架构进行评估,结果表明该框架显著减少了错误高自信预测,在高风险领域提供更可信、高效的决策支持系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in high-stakes applications, such as medical diagnosis, where confidently incorrect predictions can erode trust in automated decision-making systems. Traditional uncertainty quantification methods rely on a predefined confidence threshold to classify predictions as confident or uncertain. However, this approach assumes that predictions exceeding the threshold are trustworthy, while those below it are uncertain, without explicitly assessing the correctness of high-confidence predictions. As a result, confidently incorrect predictions may still occur, leading to misleading uncertainty assessments. To address this limitation, this study proposed an uncertainty-aware stacked neural network, which extends conventional uncertainty quantification by learning when predictions should be trusted. The framework consists of a two-tier model: the base model generates predictions with uncertainty estimates, while the meta-model learns to assign a trust flag, distinguishing confidently correct cases from those requiring expert review. The proposed approach is evaluated against the traditional threshold-based method across multiple confidence thresholds and pre-trained architectures using the COVIDx CXR-4 dataset. Results demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly reduces confidently incorrect predictions, offering a more trustworthy and efficient decision-support system for high-stakes domains.

不确定性量化医疗AI可信决策

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