arXiv:2410.03024cs.LGcs.AI2024-10ICLR被引 38

用高斯过程构建时间序列生成的先验,提升预测质量。

Flow Matching with Gaussian Process Priors for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

  • 用条件高斯过程设计数据相关先验,匹配时间结构
  • 在8个真实数据集上生成高质量样本,性能领先
  • 无需重新训练即可实现条件与无条件预测

近年来,生成建模(尤其是扩散模型)为时间序列建模开辟了新方向,在预测与合成任务中达到领先水平。然而,基于扩散的模型依赖于简单固定的先验分布,而实际数据分布与之差异显著,导致生成过程复杂。本文提出TSFlow,一种结合高斯过程、最优传输路径与数据相关先验的条件流匹配(CFM)模型。通过引入(条件)高斯过程,使先验分布更贴近数据的时间结构,从而增强无条件与有条件生成能力。此外,提出条件先验采样方法,使仅无条件训练的模型也能支持概率预测。在8个真实世界数据集上的实验表明,TSFlow具备强大生成能力,能生成高质量无条件样本;同时,条件与无条件训练模型在多个预测基准上均表现优异。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based models on a simple, fixed prior complicates the generative process since the data and prior distributions differ significantly. We introduce TSFlow, a conditional flow matching (CFM) model for time series combining Gaussian processes, optimal transport paths, and data-dependent prior distributions. By incorporating (conditional) Gaussian processes, TSFlow aligns the prior distribution more closely with the temporal structure of the data, enhancing both unconditional and conditional generation. Furthermore, we propose conditional prior sampling to enable probabilistic forecasting with an unconditionally trained model. In our experimental evaluation on eight real-world datasets, we demonstrate the generative capabilities of TSFlow, producing high-quality unconditional samples. Finally, we show that both conditionally and unconditionally trained models achieve competitive results across multiple forecasting benchmarks.

时间序列生成模型流匹配高斯过程

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