arXiv:2410.03159cs.LGcs.AI2024-10ICML被引 4

WAVE通过融合自回归与移动平均机制,提升时序预测模型对长短期模式的捕捉能力。

WAVE: Weighted Autoregressive Varying Gate for Time Series Forecasting

  • 将统计学中的ARMA结构引入自回归注意力,实现长短期模式解耦建模
  • 在多个数据集上超越现有方法,达到当前最优性能
  • 适用于需要精准捕捉局部和全局时序依赖的场景

我们提出一种加权自回归可变门(WAVE)注意力机制,结合自回归(AR)与移动平均(MA)组件,能适应多种注意力结构,增强并解耦其对时间序列中长程与局部时序模式的捕捉能力。本文首次证明,在采用合适分词与训练策略时,仅解码器的自回归Transformer模型在时序预测任务中可达到与最优基线相当的性能。受统计学中ARMA模型及近期线性注意力进展启发,我们将完整的ARMA结构引入现有自回归注意力机制。通过间接生成MA权重的方法,在保持底层高效注意力模型的时间复杂度和参数量不变的前提下,融入了MA项。进一步研究发现,间接参数生成能产生符合局部时序影响建模需求的隐式MA权重。实验表明,包含ARMA结构的WAVE注意力在多种AR注意力上持续提升性能,实现了时序预测任务的最先进结果。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a Weighted Autoregressive Varying gatE (WAVE) attention mechanism equipped with both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving-average (MA) components. It can adapt to various attention mechanisms, enhancing and decoupling their ability to capture long-range and local temporal patterns in time series data. In this paper, we first demonstrate that, for the time series forecasting (TSF) task, the previously overlooked decoder-only autoregressive Transformer model can achieve results comparable to the best baselines when appropriate tokenization and training methods are applied. Moreover, inspired by the ARMA model from statistics and recent advances in linear attention, we introduce the full ARMA structure into existing autoregressive attention mechanisms. By using an indirect MA weight generation method, we incorporate the MA term while maintaining the time complexity and parameter size of the underlying efficient attention models. We further explore how indirect parameter generation can produce implicit MA weights that align with the modeling requirements for local temporal impacts. Experimental results show that WAVE attention that incorporates the ARMA structure consistently improves the performance of various AR attentions on TSF tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results.

时序预测注意力机制ARMATransformer

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。